The low-pressure area spinning several hundred miles east of Bermuda – now designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center – has become slightly better organized since Wednesday and NHC nudged up development odds again overnight.
While the small low-pressure system has a well-defined spin and an uptick in thunderstorms near its circulation compared to Wednesday, 98L looked far from healthy early Thursday, with spates of strong northerly wind shear quickly toppling over thunderstorm activity trying to build around its center.
Forecast models are all over the place with 98L, with some models quickly dissipating it to the northwest over the next few days while other model guidance tracks it south, developing it over the weekend, then slowly loop it back northeast later next week ahead of an approaching cold front.
Regardless, the environment around 98L isn’t exactly primed for significant development in the short term. Strong wind shear should be an inhibiting factor until the weekend, but thereafter repeated incursions of dry air will put up extra hurdles.
Bottom line on 98L: expect this one to fester over the open central Atlantic into next week with a modest development shot by the weekend. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the forecasts but for now the odds of significant strengthening are low. 98L poses no threat to the U.S.
Wake up call for the Atlantic basin to end September?
We’ve been professing it until we’ve turned blue in the face this season, but the Atlantic hurricane season is as dead as we’ve ever seen it beyond its traditional mid-September peak.
Overall activity as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE is at an astonishingly low 4.4 ACE units. By this point in an average season, we’re at over 70 ACE units. We’ve never seen a hurricane season in the modern, reliable record (since 1950) with as little activity through Thursday by a wide margin. And with no hurricanes to boot (a record we discussed in last Friday’s newsletter).
Over the past decade we have noticed a trend toward later peaking hurricane seasons, something I discussed with the Washington Post in an article published Wednesday. Whether or not this is a longer-term trend linked to other climate factors is something we’ll need additional research to determine, but if recent history is any indication, we should expect relative hurricane activity to peak later than it has in previous seasons.
Our longer-range models are beginning to pick up on perhaps a late September wake-up call for the Atlantic, with a busier look to the basin coinciding with rising air bleeding into the western Atlantic for the first time in a while.
It’s too soon to discuss specifics, but we’ll want to watch the southern Gulf and western Caribbean as a possible Central American Gyre takes shape by the end the month, something we previewed in Wednesday’s newsletter. We’ll revisit the trends as we get into next week, but for now odds remain quite low.
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