Talking Tropics

9 hours ago

What we’re watching for week 2 of the Atlantic hurricane season

In newsletters last week, we previewed the possibility of an active eastern Pacific seeding an uptick in storminess across the western Caribbean or southern Gulf later this week.

3 days ago

Quiet Atlantic to close out the first week of the hurricane season

The first full week of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will close without any named storms.

Keeping an eye to the Central American gyre for late next week

The opening volleys of the 2026 hurricane season have unsurprisingly come from the eastern Pacific so far, where Amanda – the basin’s first named storm – formed late yesterday morning, and two more systems are poised to develop into next week off the Pacific coast.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season ramps up as the Atlantic stays dormant

The Atlantic hurricane season usually doesn’t come roaring out of the gate, and, as we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, June is historically the least active month of the season for the basin.

Where could we see tropical development for the first half of June?

June is historically the least active month of the 6-month hurricane season.

Hurricane season starts today. Here’s what to expect for week 1 and beyond

Today marks day one of the 183-day Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30. Forecasters expect overall hurricane activity across the Atlantic basin to be softened this season by a potentially historic El Niño building in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which acts to deter would-be storms on the Atlantic side by ramping up hostile wind shear.

This hurricane season two forecast models stand out, but for very different reasons

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season appears to be winding down.

Melissa strikes eastern Cuba as a major hurricane after ravaging western Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa, which devastated western Jamaica as one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded, briefly restrengthened between Jamaica and Cuba late Tuesday before making a second landfall shortly after 3 a.m. ET Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane about 40 miles west of Santiago de Cuba – the country’s second most populous city – in eastern Cuba.

Melissa takes aims at Jamaica as a monster Category 5 hurricane

Hurricane Melissa put on a rare show overnight, tipping the scales as a Category 5 hurricane by the predawn hours Monday while drifting only about 100 miles south of Jamaica over the deep, warm waters of the central Caribbean.

Melissa to strengthen and drift near or south of Jamaica as a major hurricane by Sunday

Tropical Storm Melissa grounded to a halt over the central Caribbean about 150 miles south of Jamaica and Haiti early Friday.

Melissa forecast to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane this weekend

Tropical Storm Melissa continued to struggle early Thursday as it crawled several hundred miles south of Jamaica and Haiti over the central Caribbean.

Melissa to meander, raising the risk of significant flash flooding for the north-central Caribbean

Tropical Storm Melissa formed late Tuesday morning about 300 miles south of Haiti over the central Caribbean but remains disorganized as it contends with persistent wind shear.

Development likely this week in the Caribbean, but future path remains unclear

A tropical wave that moved into the eastern Caribbean on Sunday – designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center on Saturday – is becoming increasingly organized and will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or two as it slows over the central Caribbean.

Looking ahead to next week in the Caribbean

A strong late-season tropical wave now moving through the central Atlantic could develop once it enters the Caribbean as upper-level winds turn increasingly conducive next week.

Atlantic ends the week on a quiet note

Since the basin reopened for business about a month ago following a bizarre 20-day drought with no active tropical systems through the traditional peak of the hurricane season, it’s managed to notch 6 of its 12 named storms and a full 60% of the season’s overall tropical activity as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE.

Lorenzo limps along as the Atlantic takes a breath

Despite earlier forecasts showing Tropical Storm Lorenzo hanging around into the weekend, the unfriendly central Atlantic of mid October has done a number on it, and it’s no longer expected to survive the work week.

Disheveled Jerry to pass near the northern Leeward Islands today

Despite a lopsided and disheveled appearance, Tropical Storm Jerry’s winds have gradually ticked up and it’s expected to be just shy of hurricane strength as its center curves north of the northern Leeward Islands along the northeastern edge of the Caribbean later today.

Tropical depression forming, could become a hurricane as it nears the Leeward Islands Thursday and Friday

A strong tropical disturbance churning through the central Atlantic – designated Invest 95L – continues to organize and is on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. The next name on the list is Jerry.

No slowdown in hurricane season to start October

The 2025 hurricane season that hit the pause button for nearly 3 weeks around its traditional peak in September is showing no signs of slowing as we enter its final stretch.

Imelda strikes Bermuda, new area to watch for next week in the Atlantic

Hurricane Imelda struck Bermuda head on during the midnight hours late Wednesday and early Thursday, plunging about half the archipelago into darkness as daylight broke Thursday.

Imelda inbound for Bermuda

Hurricane Imelda is accelerating away from the U.S. but strengthening on a beeline to Bermuda for later today, where it’s forecast to bring strong winds to 100-plus mph, flooding rains, and powerful and destructive waves.

Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto lock arms and swing away from the US

Imelda became the 4th hurricane of the 2025 hurricane season early Monday as it began its anticipated turn eastward only about 250 miles off Florida’s east-central coast.

Imelda strengthens over the Bahamas as US threat lessens

Tropical Storm Imelda formed Sunday afternoon just east of the southern tip of Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas and continues to strengthen near Great Abaco Island in the northern Bahamas – about 200 miles east of southeast Florida – on Monday.

Imelda could form by this weekend and threaten the southeast US early next week

Humberto rapidly strengthened to a hurricane early Friday and is forecast to ramp up into a formidable major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend, but it’s the disturbance to Humberto’s west that’s expected to develop and threaten the southeast U.S. – likely as Imelda – by late weekend and early next week.

Humberto forms, threat to the southeast US grows from possible Imelda

Humberto – the 8th named storm of the hurricane season – formed Monday afternoon over the central Atlantic and is forecast to become a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane by Monday as it turns east of the U.S.

Double Trouble: Dueling disturbances head west for the weekend

Two vigorous tropical disturbances – designated Invest 93L (easternmost disturbance) and Invest 94L (westernmost disturbance) – are likely to develop in the coming days and could bring impacts to land, with the westernmost system tracking through the Bahamas and near Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas for early next week.

Gabrielle rapidly strengthens into a major hurricane, other systems eye the western Atlantic

As we previewed in this newsletter two weeks ago, the Atlantic is finally heating up as we round out September.

Gabrielle staging a comeback, forecast to become a hurricane this weekend

After days of struggles through the hostile deep Atlantic – barely holding on most of Thursday as a naked low-level cloud swirl – Gabrielle is staging a comeback today that should take it to hurricane strength before the weekend is out.

Gabrielle clinging to life but forecast to recover this weekend

Gabrielle, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed late Wednesday morning, the first named storm in the Atlantic since August 28th, breaking a remarkable 20-day stormless Atlantic streak and making it the latest first-forming September storm in over 30 years.

Depression forms, forecast to become Gabrielle later today

Invest 92L, the disturbance we’ve been following since early last week, was upgraded to the 7th tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season early Wednesday, breaking an unprecedented 20-day dry spell through what’s traditionally the busiest part of the season.

Atlantic wave train getting a late start

As we’ve been advertising since early last week, the Atlantic is poised to pick up the pace as we round out September.

Breaking the silence of an unprecedented Atlantic dry spell

It’s been 18 days since the Atlantic basin has seen any active system (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane), an unprecedented dry spell through what is traditionally the most active stretch of the hurricane season.

Gradual development possible over the open Atlantic next week

The tropical wave we’ve been previewing all week has finally emerged off the coast of Africa and is expected to gradually develop deeper into next week as it passes harmlessly over the open Atlantic.

Another unusually quiet start to September across the Atlantic

Atlantic hurricane season activity traditionally peaks on or around September 10th, the date around which you’re most likely to find an active named storm.

Forecast Falter: Invest 91L fizzles despite bullish predictions

With virtually no model support for development by Saturday, the National Hurricane Center dropped development odds at a rapid clip, and before the day was out, Invest 91L was off their map.

Tracking Invest 91L toward the eastern Caribbean islands for next week

The tropical wave we’ve been following since last Thursday in this newsletter – designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center early Thursday – is expected to become a tropical depression or named storm this weekend and could affect the easternmost islands of the Caribbean by the middle to latter part of next week.

Forecast models undecided on fate of Atlantic disturbance

The tropical wave that rolled off Africa Sunday – a system we’ve been following since last Thursday and discussed in detail in yesterday’s newsletter – continues to move harmlessly through the deep tropical Atlantic with only scattered, disorganized storminess.

Next tropical system could develop by this weekend

A disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic could gradually develop into a tropical depression or named storm by late this week or weekend as it moves generally west to west-northwestward.

Reflections on Katrina: 20 years later

Katrina was apocalyptic in every sense of the word.

Farewell to Fernand as the Atlantic takes a Labor Day holiday

After a rollicking August, the Atlantic basin looks poised to go its longest stretch without a named storm since the last days of July.

August closes quietly across the Atlantic

With one named storm taking its final bow today, the Atlantic should close out August on a quiet note.

New AI forecast model shines during Hurricane Erin

Google DeepMind, a London-based AI research lab, has been in the business of machine learning-based weather forecasting for several years, but back in June announced a new experimental AI model specific to tropical storms and hurricanes that would be evaluated in real-time this season by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

Fernand gone fishing as the Atlantic takes a breather

Fernand, the 6th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Saturday over the open Atlantic southeast of Bermuda, but hooked quickly east of Bermuda on Sunday on a path out to sea.

Enormous Erin growing larger; violent seas, dangerous waves & treacherous surf expected along US East Coast

Hurricane Erin’s reach through the western Atlantic continues to grow and intensify, with pressures quickly falling into the low 940s while churning about 475 miles east-southeast of northeast Florida.

Tropical storm and storm surge watches issued for North Carolina’s Outer Banks ahead of Erin

Hurricane Erin, already twice as large as it was just a few days ago, is expected to grow even larger this week as its expanding wind field brushes up against the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, delivering days of dangerous waves, high surf, and life-threatening rip currents for most of the coastal Atlantic states.

Erin stuns as a weekend Category 5, to bring life-threatening surf to the eastern US seaboard this week

Hurricane Erin dazzled forecasters over the weekend, putting on a spectacular show of strength rarely observed, becoming only the 43rd Atlantic-basin Category 5 hurricane on record and tying Camille in 1969 for the 4th earliest-forming Category 5 ever recorded.

Erin forecast to strengthen into a hurricane today

Despite steady strengthening on Thursday to near hurricane strength, Erin struggled overnight, with hurricane hunters finding a degraded core during pre-dawn missions Friday.

Erin set to strengthen as forecast trends shift

Erin, the fifth named storm of the hurricane season, formed on Monday over the eastern Atlantic and is poised to strengthen into the first hurricane of the season by Thursday as it tracks westward.

Monitoring the path of what threatens to be the first hurricane of the season

The tropical wave that moved off Africa Friday has been designated Invest 97L, and it is on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. The next name on the list is Erin.

Watching the tropical wave for next week

As we’ve anticipated since early last month, the Atlantic is off to a busy start this August but thankfully so far we’ve avoided any threats to land.

Tropical Atlantic awake but no land threats for now

The Atlantic’s making up for a slow start, with Dexter alone doubling the paltry activity of the past two months, and more storms on the horizon.

Three tropical systems to watch in the week ahead

As any regular reader of this newsletter knows, there’s always a point in the hurricane season – most often in August – when the Atlantic springs awake.

Dexter moving out, but more to follow

We’re not even through the first full week of August and the hurricane season is quickly hitting its stride.

Hurricane season heating up

We’ve been previewing a busy start to August in this newsletter for almost a month, describing the behind-the-scenes developments signaling an uptick in Atlantic activity, and, two weeks ago, advertising an August 3rd wake-up call for the basin.

August hurricanes: Where do they form? Where do they hit?

It’s August, a big month for the hurricane season when activity ramps up in a hurry and powerful hurricanes can threaten from every direction.

Quiet end to July across the Atlantic

July, despite a few very significant tropically-driven floods, will end on a mostly quiet note.

Saharan dust largely a no-show this July

Saharan dust plumes heaved through the Atlantic from the deserts of North Africa each summer – providing rich nutrients for soils of the Amazon while helping to curb early season hurricane activity – has been largely a no-show so far.

Watching the tropical waves this week

As we discussed in Friday’s newsletter, the Atlantic is beginning its pivot into the traditionally busiest 6-week stretch of the hurricane season.

Tropical Atlantic showing signs of life to start August

There’s often a point in the hurricane season – typically in August – when forecast models wake up, suddenly realizing the Atlantic’s in shape to start churning out hurricanes.

Disorganized disturbance moving through the northern Gulf

A disorganized area of low pressure that moved across north Florida from the Atlantic yesterday is migrating westward through the northern Gulf today.

Tropics stay mostly quiet this week

The tropics should stay mostly quiet into the waning days of July.

Changes afoot across the Atlantic. A harbinger for hurricane activity ahead?

The Atlantic basin has been undergoing a metamorphosis of sorts over the past few weeks, shedding its hostile early season shell for an increasingly conducive look with the hurricane season’s traditional busiest stretch only weeks away.

First area of interest tagged in the Atlantic Main Development Region

Late Friday, the National Hurricane Center tagged its first area of interest over the traditional Main Development Region or MDR of the Atlantic – the band of deep tropical waters east of the easternmost Caribbean islands – so far this hurricane season.

Disturbance moves inland over Louisiana while tropics stay quiet

The disturbance dubbed Invest 93L washed ashore over Louisiana on Thursday, bringing widespread rainfall of 2 to 5 inches across much of southern Louisiana, with localized totals reaching double digits in the bayous of the Atchafalaya River basin north of Morgan City in coastal south-central Louisiana.

Invest 93L scraping the northern Gulf Coast, flood threat ramping up for areas west

We continue to follow the progress of Invest 93L, an area of low pressure that moved from the Atlantic across the northern Florida peninsula on Tuesday and is now scraping westward through the state’s panhandle along the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical disturbance brings heightened flood threat to Louisiana later this week

So far in 2025, National Weather Service offices have issued more flood warnings than any other year on record dating back to 1986.

Possible Gulf development on heels of Florida flood threat

A disturbance that emerged off the coastal Carolinas on Sunday is expected to swing across Florida and into the Gulf by mid-week, where models suggest it could slowly develop as it scrapes across the northern Gulf Coast.

It’s Saharan dust season, but where’s the dust?

Big outbreaks of Saharan dust – tens of millions of tons of mineral dust hoisted from the sands of North Africa into the Atlantic each hurricane season – typically peak around this time each year.

Top hurricane scientists sound the alarm on looming NOAA cuts

On Wednesday, some of the nation’s top hurricane scientists joined House Democrats for a virtual press conference to sound the alarm on proposed budget cuts that would severely degrade hurricane monitoring and forecasting.

Where to look in July for tropical development

July is a transition month in the Atlantic when we begin to look a little deeper into the basin and closer to Africa for hurricane seedlings.

Trying to make sense of the unspeakable Texas tragedy

The catastrophic flooding that ripped through parts of the Texas Hill Country along the Guadalupe River northwest of San Antonio during the predawn hours on July 4th quickly turned into an unspeakable tragedy, killing at least 82 people, including 28 children.

Slow development possible off the Southeast US this weekend or early next week

We continue to monitor a weakening cold front now over the southeast U.S. that’s expected to stall over Florida by late week and could spin off a tropical depression or named storm by the weekend or early next week.

NOAA proposes permanently closing premiere hurricane research institute

Only days after the U.S. Department of Defense abruptly announced the immediate termination of satellite data critical to hurricane forecasts – granted a moratorium early Monday through July – NOAA posted details of its 2026 budget request to Congress.

Monitoring the northern Gulf and Southeast US for the Fourth of July weekend

A stalled front across Florida’s peninsula later this week could spawn a tropical system over the northeastern Gulf or off the Southeast U.S. by the Fourth of July weekend.

Critical hurricane forecast tool abruptly terminated

On Monday, the U.S. Department of Defense announced it would immediately stop ingesting, processing, and transmitting data essential to most hurricane forecasts.

Andrea comes, Andrea goes

The low-level cloud swirl spinning harmlessly over the open waters of the high Atlantic wasn’t much to look at on Tuesday but managed to muster up enough steam for NHC to briefly classify it Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the 2025 hurricane season.