Florida
South Florida
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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 2 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough axis extends passes off the coast of Africa near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 08N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N30W to 00N50W.Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of 08N and east of 20W.
Gulf Of Mexico
A dissipating cold front from near Florida Bay to 26N87W continues as a warm front to the middle Texas coast. The front will wash out through the day. Fresh SE winds are noted over the NW Gulf. Easterly winds of moderate or less speeds are elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of 90W, with the highest seas near 28N95W. Seas are below 3 ft east of 90W.
For the forecast, high pressure will build in its wake tonight through the early part of the week. An inverted trough may develop over the western Gulf early this week where it may linger through at least mid-week. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.
Caribbean Sea
A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean and maintains moderate trade winds over most of the basin. The exception is the Gulf of Honduras, where fresh to strong east to southeast winds remain rather persistent there as seen in a recent ASCAT pass. Seas are slight to moderate across the basin, with peak seas to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.
Rather stable atmospheric conditions under a broad anticyclone aloft prevail across most of the basin. The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough reaches eastward into the southwestern Caribbean and into northern Colombia helping to sustain the aforementioned shower and thunderstorm activity. Isolated showers are over some sections of the eastern Caribbean. This activity may increase to that of the scattered type today over some areas, including islands, of the northeast part of the basin as mid to upper-level atmospheric conditions become more favorable for the enhancement of convective activity.
For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh winds in the south-central and in the southeastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere today and tonight. The pressure gradient will tighten early this week, with fresh to strong trade winds expected in the S-central and in the northwestern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. Seas will build next week as a result of the increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across some areas of the northwestern Caribbean.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front is analyzed from 31N65W to 26N70W and to the northern Bahamas, where it intercepts a 1012 mb low pressure center near 26N78W. A weak cold front extedns from the low to the Florida Keys. Moderate winds are behind the front, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the front, north of 28N and west of 60W, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are within 90 nm ahead of the front, north of 27N.
The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad 1030 mb high pressure system centered to the southwest of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressures in northwest Africa result in fresh to strong northerly winds north of 15N and east of about 30W, with the strongest winds off Morocco. Seas in the area described are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned The front will weaken as it reaches from near 31N60W the Central Bahamas by early Mon, then dissipating from near 27N55W to 22N65W by early Tue with high pressure building in its wake. Fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas are forecast offshore N Florida by Tue ahead of another possible cold front. That front may reach from near 31N76W to 27N80W by early Thu.
Posted 1 hour, 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mora
