Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W, S of 22N, moving slowly westward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 07N between 16W and 21W.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W, S of 18N, and is nearly stationary. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W, and continues southwestward to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from 02N30W to near the coast of 02N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 03N between 12. 5W and 28. 5W, and S of 03N between 34W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extending from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula across the Yucatan channel. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are over the western Gulf, with gentle E-SE winds and 1-3 ft seas over the eastern half.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf today as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico tonight into Wed. Similar winds will pulse near the northern Yucatan Wed evening. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stalling Thu evening, then retreating back inland Fri as ridging builds back in across the basin from the east.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong winds over the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Light and variable winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the NW Caribbean, except for moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas, with similar winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the week and into the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary dissipate by Tue in the far NW basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N61W to 23. 5N73W to 1012 mb low pressure near 25N75W to the Straits of Florida. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is near the Central Bahamas from 24N to 26N between 74W and 78W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted N of 26N within roughly 180 nm ahead of the front. Winds near the front have diminished slightly during the past several hours, with gentle to moderate winds across the offshore waters N of 19N. Seas are 3-5 ft SE of the front to 55W, and 4-7 ft in NW-N swell W of the front. A tropical wave is in the Tropical N Atlantic and is described more above. Farther east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 29. 5N29W.

The remainder of the discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 34N45W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas are on the N side of the low. Moderate to locally fresh trades are S of 19N and W of 40W, where seas are 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the discussion waters, with mainly moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the SW N ATLC front will remain stationary into today, then the northern portions will shift east as a cold front tonight and Wed. moderate to locally fresh winds just north of the front will slowly diminish into mid-week as the boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week. High pressure ridging and a relatively weak pressure gradient should prevail by the weekend.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky