Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis remains mostly over the Africa Continent. The ITCZ extends southwestward from 03N12W to 01N32W and to near 02N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 11W and 18W and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 13W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W and 36W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 35W and the coast of Brazil.

Gulf Of America

Broad ridging stretches from the southeastern U. S. southwestward to central Texas. The related gradient is allowing for mostly moderate to fresh east winds across just about the entire basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft east of 90W and south of 26N and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except for slightly lower seas of 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh east winds should persist through tonight. The high pressure will strengthen some through late Sun night as it shifts eastward over the western Atlantic through early next week before it weakens into midweek. A ridge will stretch west-southwestward from the high to across the northern Gulf through the period. A tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure to its southeast associated with a frontal boundary will funnel pulsing fresh to strong east winds through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf starting on Mon. Seas across the basin will be at a mostly moderate state, except, at times, reaching a rough state in the Straits of Florida beginning on Mon.

Caribbean Sea

The present synoptic weather pattern, with a frontal system over the western Atlantic and building high pressure behind it is keeping fresh to strong trades confined to the south-central section of the sea, namely south of about 16N and between 70W and 78W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft. Fresh northeast winds have recently develop in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere south of 17N east of 85W, and gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are elsewhere in the western section of the basin. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, except north of 18N and east of 85W where slightly lower seas of 3 to 5 ft are found.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola starting tonight.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from low pressure of 1011 mb north of the area near 33N61W to 31N61W to 28N65W and to the eastern tip of Cuba. Fresh to strong south winds are east of the front to near 52W and north of 28N. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8 to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is evident within about 120 nm east of the front north of 24N. A trough is analyzed from near 19N53W to 12N53W. Isolated showers are possible near this trough.

Mostly fresh northeast winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident behind the cold front, except seas in the Bahamas are 5 to 7 ft. Winds elsewhere east of the front are moderate to fresh in speeds, and east to southeast in direction to near 40W along with seas of 7 to 9 ft in long-period east swell. East of 40W, east winds of fresh speeds are present also with seas of 7 to 9 ft in long- period northeast swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the southeastern U. S. is building southward over the western Atlantic behind the above described cold front. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the front will maintain mostly fresh northeast winds west of the front through Sun. Winds become locally strong starting Sun night as the high pressure strengthens some. The winds then diminish back to mostly fresh speeds starting Tue south of 28N as the high pressure weakens, with an associated ridge near 31N. Rough seas from large NE swell will linger into the start of next week between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre