Special Features

Central Atlantic Gale Warning

Strong westerly winds and very rough seas prevail N of 26N between 50W and 70W, with gales ongoing N of 30N between about 55W and 65W. These winds are being generated by a strong low pressure in the NE Atlantic well offshore New England and the associated cold front that extends from near 31N55W to The Turks and Caicos. As the low pressure and cold front move east and begin to weaken, the gales should end Sun morning. However, the area of very rough seas N of 25N, including wave heights near 20 ft N of 30N, will propagate eastward through area waters through early next week. E of 65W.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning

Fresh to strong SW winds offshore NE Florida and north of The Bahamas will increase Mon ahead of a cold front, and reach gale force for waters N of 29N Mon afternoon. As the cold front moves E across the waters, gales will occur on both sides of the boundary, mainly N of 28N, through early next week. The cold front will stretch from Bermuda to The Turks and Caicos Tue, then reach near 31N50W to Hispaniola Wed, when it will begin to weaken and associated gales will diminish. However, the very large seas that will accompany the gales will expand southeast and impact waters N of 27N into late next week.

Gulf Of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning

A strong cold front will move offshore Texas Sun evening, with strong N winds behind the front reaching gale force offshore NE Mexico early Mon morning, offshore Tampico, Mexico, during the day Mon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Mon night. Seas will rapidly build to 12 to 14 ft where gales occur. The cold front move quickly SE and exit the basin by Tue morning, when winds and seas will diminish.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N11W to 02N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N between 30W-40W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning in the far western Gulf.

The stalling cold front that had been drapped through the Gulf of Mexico this evening has dissipated, with modest high pressure building in from the northeast in its wake. Winds across the western Gulf are increasing ahead of the next cold front, with strong southerly winds now occurring offshore Texas and northeast Mexico. Fresh winds dominate the remainder of the central and western Gulf, as well as the Florida Straits, with gentle to moderate mainly NE winds in the NE basin. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the SE. The highest seas are offshore the lower and middle Texas coast.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift eastward on Sun, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Sun evening. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front covering the western half of the Gulf by tonight, and extending to the NE Gulf Sun and Sun night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Mon morning, and from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico by Mon evening. The front will exit the basin on Mon night. High pressure, in the wake of the front, will cover the Gulf waters on Tue producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Looking ahead, a trough will develop over the western Gulf on Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough axis. A low may develop along the trough axis over the NW Gulf by Thu bringing increasing winds and seas.

Caribbean Sea

The stationary front just S of Cuba has dissipated this evening. A new cold front is crossing the island tonight. A tight pressure north-south pressure gradient is forcing strong NE winds through Atlantic passages of the Greater Antilles as well as waters S of Hispaniola and Cuba, and offshore Columbia. Seas in these areas are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate to fresh NE winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except for waters E of 66W, where winds are moderate and seas are 3 to 5 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection encompasses much of the SW Caribbean N of 15N and W of 74W, due to the interaction of upper level divergence, deep layer moisture, and the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient will continue to induce fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba, and over the NW Caribbean through this morning. A trough that extends from near the southeastern Bahamas to the eastern tip of Cuba and to near 16N80W will drift westward across the central Caribbean today, likely reaching the NW Caribbean on Tue. High pressure will build in the wake on the trough, and will enhance the trades to fresh to strong speeds over the central Caribbean mainly at night through Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about two Gale Warnings in effect for the portions of the central and western Atlantic, respectively.

A cold front extends from 31N55W to The Turks and Caicos to eastern Cuba. Fresh N winds and rough seas follow this front. To the east, subtropical waters are dominated by a high pressure, centered near 28N37W with 1022 mb. This is leading to mainly gentle anticyclonic flow and seas of 5 to 7 ft for waters N of 20N and E of 55W. To the south, fresh E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft dominate the tradewind belt.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds and very rough seas will continue to affect mainly the offshore waters E of 70W through Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds will return to the waters off NE Florida and north of the Bahamas Sun night into Mon, ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the U.S. Coast late Mon. The front will extend from 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N57W to SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue night. Another swell event, with very rough seas will follow the front, affecting mainly the waters N of 29N on Tue, and propagating across the area N of 27N and E of 70W on Wed. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front may bring another round a gale force winds to the offshore waters N of 29N by Thu night.

Posted 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik