Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the far eastern Atlantic through the west coast of Africa near 12N16W, and continues south- southwestward to near 07N17W, and then west-southwestward to 04N23W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N23W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 10N between 09E and 20W. More scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 10N between 20W and 47W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure stretches from offshore the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the Gulf. Mostly dry and stable conditions remain in place over the basin, except in the far northwest and north-central Gulf where scattered showers are observed via satellite. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds prevail across the basin. Seas are in the range of 3 to 6 ft per latest buoy observations and in recent altimeter satellite data passes.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge northeast of the Gulf will force generally moderate to fresh E to SE winds across forecast waters for the next few days. E winds will pulse to strong north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche nightly through Thu night in association with a diurnal trough. Additionally, E winds will pulse to strong over the Florida Straits tonight and Wed night. Looking ahead, winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri into the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean S of 11N between the coasts of Colombia and Nicaragua, in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough which now extends across the region. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring elsewhere across much of the central and W Caribbean, per recent scatterometer data. Winds across the E Caribbean are gentle to moderate and from the east. Seas across the basin are analyzed at 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support pulsing fresh to strong trades at night over the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through Thu night. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions should prevail over the forecast waters through the end of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N57W to 25N70W to 26N76W. A pre-frontal trough is also analyzed from 30N57W to 19N65W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed between this front and the east coast of Florida, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Scattered showers are occurring in the vicinity of these features. More scattered showers are occurring ahead of both of these features in an area N of 22N between 38W and 57W, with scattered moderate convection occurring N of 28N between 51W and 55W. This activity is supported by convergent surface winds as well as an upper-level trough W of the region. Another cold front extends from 31N12W to 27N15W. This cold front is aiding in the development of more scattered showers from 19N to 27N and E of 35W. Winds behind this front and within areas of showers are from the N to NE, sustained at fresh to strong speeds. Rough seas are also analyzed N of 19N between 17W and 35W.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a ridge extending from a 1031 mb high centered near 37N35W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail N of 20N between 35W and 54W, along with moderate seas. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic S of 20N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is seeing mainly moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N58W to the NW Bahamas. As the front gradually dissipates, fresh NW to N winds should continue through Wed night. As the Bermuda High following the front weakens, winds across the forecast waters should drop to moderate or weaker on Thu and Thu night. Looking ahead, remnants of the front that develop into a trough northeast of the Leeward Islands should force fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 27N from Fri morning into the weekend.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams