Special Features

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: Large W to NW swell generated by a storm system centered north of the area is shifting eastward across the western and central Atlantic waters early this morning. Overnight Sofar buoy observations and altimeter data indicated that seas of 12 to 15 ft are north of 26.5N between 49W and 60W. These observations are a few feet higher than global wave models have forecast. Seas are forecast to gradually lower below 12 ft south of 31N by late Sun evening, as the swell shifts eastward and subsides.

SW Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the northwestern Gulf overnight, and will sweep southeastward across the entire basin through Mon evening. Gale-force NW winds will develop behind the front offshore of Veracruz by late morning, accompanied by locally very rough seas. Winds offshore of Veracruz are expected to diminish below gale-force Sun evening. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas are expected across most of the basin in the wake of the front as it moves southeastward. Winds will diminish from west to east Mon through Mon night.

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near 08N13W and continues to 00N26W. The ITCZ resumes near 02S34W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted S of 06.5N between 08W and 24W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere S of 03.5N between 27W and 48W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the Special Features section for information about an upcoming Gale Warning today.

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf in recent hours, and extends from near the Texas-Louisiana border to the upper Mexican coast along 24.5N. Fog and low clouds extend within 120 nm E of the front to the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring across the Florida Panhandle, to the north of a trough that is just offshore. Strong NW to N winds are building in behind the front, and quickly raising seas to near 9 ft at this time. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging extends from the western Atlantic into the southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are noted over the south-central Gulf, between the high pressure and lower pressure over northeastern Mexico and southern Texas, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for light breezes and 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will continue across the central Gulf through midday today, ahead of a cold moving across the northwestern Gulf early this morning. The front will move southeastward across the entire Gulf through Mon evening. High pressure building southward behind the front will force fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas basin-wide as the front sweeps across the Gulf. Expect strong winds with occasional gusts to gale-force this morning across the Texas and NE Mexico offshore waters. NW winds will quickly increase to gale- force offshore of Veracruz late Sun morning, then diminish by Sun evening. Winds will gradually diminish from W to E Mon through Mon night as the front exits the Gulf. High pressure will slide eastward across the northern Gulf Tue through Thu.

Caribbean Sea

Weak ridging north of the area along 25N-26N dominates the basin. Aside from fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras, offshore northwestern Colombia, and the Gulf of Venezuela, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail. Seas 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the basin, except for seas 5 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will continue north of the area through MOn night. The resultant pressure gradient will result in moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela pulsing to fresh to strong during the evening and early morning hours through Tue morning, then returning late in the week. A similar scenario is also expected across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will move across the Gulf of America and enter the northwestern Caribbean on Mon evening, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning, then dissipate from the N coast of Haiti to the Gulf of Honduras early Wed. Expect fresh to locally strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the front through Tue morning.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information on significant swell across portions of the western Atlantic.

A weakening cold front extends from 31N46W to just offshore of the NE coast of the Dominican Republic. Moderate SW winds are found ahead of the front, north of 28N between 41W and the front. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the front north of 29N. Light to gentle breezes are evident elsewhere west of the front, within the weak ridge. Large W to NW swell is producing seas of 8 to 14 ft behind the front, and east of 66W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted north of 28N between 58W and 79W. Father east, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 20N and east of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to SW winds and rough seas will prevail over the waters north of 29N and east of 70W through this afternoon as a cold front moves N of the area. Rough to very rough seas in large W to NW swell dominates the waters E of 63W this morning, and will shift eastward and gradually subside through tonight. On Mon, a complex low and frontal system will move off the Carolina coasts and induce fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front and strong W to NW winds and very rough seas behind the front. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas Tue morning, and from 31N62W to the N coast of Hispaniola by Wed morning, then drift SE and weaken quickly through Thu morning. NW gales are possible behind the front and N of 28N early Tue.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling