Special Features

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal boundary extends from just west of Bermuda to central Cuba early this morning. Along and just ahead of the front, scattered strong thunderstorms are producing locally strong to near gale force winds. A low pressure center has formed along the front just north of the Bahamas. NE winds are developing near the low this morning and will increase to gale force north of 29N between 74W-77W today. Seas will peak near 15 ft this afternoon and tonight. As the low moves toward the northeast away from the area and weakens Thu, conditions will improve.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large N swell has been moving through the central and eastern North Atlantic over the past several days. A pair of altimeter satellite passes from around 0000 UTC show seas near 12 ft over a large area from 15N-31N between 35W-40W. These wave heights are in a mix of N swell and shorter-period seas attributed strong to gale force winds on the west side of 1002 mb low pressure near 34N24W, moving southeastward toward the Canary Islands. Wave heights in excess of 12 ft will persist through early Thu to the southwest of the low pressure, then subside as the low weakens.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/Intertropical Convergence Zone

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is active south of 03N west of 33W.

Gulf Of America

As of 0900 UTC, post-frontal N winds continue across the Gulf this morning. Winds are moderate to fresh in the E Gulf and light to gentle in the W Gulf. Seas are only 1-2 ft in the NW Gulf, but are still 6-7 ft in the SE Gulf. A weak cold front has reached the waters off of the Florida panhandle overnight, but it is expected to dissipate shortly. No deep convection is occurring this morning.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds in the E Gulf will diminish today and tranquil weather should prevail through Fri morning. A relatively weak cold front will move through the Gulf Thu night through Fri. Fresh NW to N winds will follow this front over the NE Gulf Fri night into Sat.

Caribbean Sea

A slow-moving cold front extends from central Cuba to 17N82W. While winds east of the front are only light to gentle, winds west of the front are N fresh to strong with seas 4-7 ft. Scattered showers are noted within 60 NM of the frontal boundary. A modest pressure gradient from a 1010 mb Colombian Low to a 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 30N50W is forcing moderate to fresh trades east of 78W with seas 5-6 ft. Moderate NE swell is impacting the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, the cold front will drift across the NW Caribbean today, then gradually dissipate from E Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border Thu. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow the front across the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean through this afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend. Farther east, large N swell will continue to impact Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N winds will follow the remnants of the front off the coast of Nicaragua late Fri into Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details regarding the upcoming gale warning northeast of the northern Bahamas, and the large swell event in the central Atlantic.

A frontal boundary extends from just west of Bermuda to central Cuba early this morning with a 1012 mb low forming near 28N76W. Along and just ahead of the front, scattered strong thunderstorms are producing locally strong to near gale force wind gusts. Sustained winds are NE moderate to fresh north of the front with seas 5-7 ft, and SW gentle to moderate south of the front with seas 4-5 ft. Farther east, a modest pressure gradient from the ITCZ to a 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 30N50W is forcing moderate to fresh trades south of 23N. A large area of 8-12 ft seas is occurring southeast of a line from 31N45W to the Lesser Antilles due to N swell and ENE wind waves.

For the forecast west of 55W, a low pressure center has formed along the aforementioned front just north of the Bahamas. NE winds are developing near the low this morning and will increase to gale force north of 29N between 74W-77W today. As the low moves toward the northeast away from the area and weakens Thu, conditions will improve. Looking ahead, a weaker cold front will move off the coast of Florida late Fri, followed by moderate to fresh W to NW winds.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea