Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W, then transitions to the ITCZ near 05N15W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 05N between 10W and 12W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A trough persists along 95W over the western Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the northern portion of the trough, from 25N to 26N between 94W an 96W. A scatterometer satellite pass from around 03 UTC indicated fresh to strong winds across the southeast and south-central Gulf. This is south of 1037 mb high pressure centered over the central plains. Seas are 5 to 7 ft south of 25N, with seas to 8 ft near the Yucatan Channel. Seas north of 25N 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure will build over the southeastern United States and maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the S Gulf through tonight. Fresh to strong SE return flow will set up in the western Gulf late today through Wed night, accompanied by rough seas numerous showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf coast Thu afternoon, but will have only moderate to fresh NE winds associated with it.

Caribbean Sea

A scatterometer satellite pass from around 03 UTC indicated fresh to strong NE winds over the northwestern Caribbean and across the Windward Passage, between strong high pressure well north of the region, and lower pressure over Colombia. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also noted off Colombia, and the convergence of these winds are supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough off Panama and Costa Rica, and between Jamaica and northeastern Nicaragua. Moderate to rough seas are evident across the northwest Caribbean and moderate seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas over most of the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage through mid week. The high pressure will weaken and shift eastward Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish, although fresh to strong NE winds will persist south of Cuba and near Grand Cayman through Fri night. Farther south, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will pulse off Colombia into Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A few showers and thunderstorms are evident within 60 nm east of a weak cold front reaches from 31N58W to 24N68W. A few thunderstorms are active off the north coast of Hispaniola, and at the base of a trough from the front to the north coast of Haiti. Farther west, reinforcing cold front extends from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted ahead of the first front, with 6 to 8 ft seas north of 28N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted west of the front, with 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere west of 60W. Farther east, the pattern is dominated by 1031 mb high pressure near the Azores. This pattern is supporting mostly fresh to strong NE to E winds to the east of 60W along with 6 to 9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fronts will merge and reach from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late today, from 28N55W to northeast Hispaniola by late Wed, then stall and weaken through Fri. Fresh to strong and rough seas will follow the front south of 22N through mid week. A trough will follow the reinforcing front between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Wed, followed by fresh to strong winds and rough seas in NW swell, north of 26N. High pressure will build across the waters north of 26N Thu, ahead of another cold front off northeast Florida. Looking ahead, the front will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by Fri night, and from 31N55W to central Cuba by late Sat.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen