The Atlantic will stay on a hurricane hiatus through at least the early part of next week.
As we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, however, longer range forecast models continue to indicate the possibility of development by later next week with a strong tropical wave emerging over the eastern Atlantic around next Tuesday or Wednesday (August 25-26).
The development of this next candidate is by no means a lock, but the signal has been the most pronounced we’ve seen amongst all major models and modeling camps (AI and traditional physics-based models). We saw some models perk up with the last two waves – Invest 92L and Invest 94L – only to fall flat in later cycles as the waves fizzled. And even with this one, we’re seeing some hemming and hawing between model runs, with Google’s DeepMind peeling back its early enthusiasm in overnight runs.
Nevertheless, the difference between mid-August with the last two waves and late August with the one ahead is noteworthy, and the Atlantic is better primed to support development in late August and early September than it is just a few weeks prior, something we know well from climatology.
Systems this season will largely struggle, but late August through mid-October is kind of like July in the South. Even on “cool” days, it can still feel hot. A heatwave in July hits differently than one in March, and that’s why we stay vigilant this time of year. Hurricane season wants to give us storm-equivalent heatwaves by September, even in “cool” years.
The good news in late August and early September is the threats often, though certainly not always, originate over the wide open Atlantic, which gives us plenty of time to watch and prepare. That’s obviously the case here, and regardless, we have plenty of time to follow the trends.
For now, we don’t anticipate any tropical threats on the Atlantic side through at least the end of next week.
Another close call for Hawaii this weekend?
Meanwhile, out in the central Pacific, we can’t give the same reassurances to Hawaii, where officials are still assessing damage and only beginning recovery efforts in the wake of Lala last weekend.
Invest 90E, located about 1,000 miles southeast of Hawaii, is expected to gradually organize into a tropical depression and named storm (Moke pronounced MOH-keh) in the coming days as it moves in the general direction of Hawaii.
It’s too soon to know if future Moke will pose a direct threat to the islands, but models suggest it could be in the vicinity by this upcoming weekend.
Until the system fully forms, models will be jumpy, and for now, this is simply one that interests in the state – and particularly on the Big Island – should monitor. At least for now, conditions don’t seem as conducive to strengthening as they were with Lala, but it doesn’t take a direct hit from a hurricane to cause problems, especially in places with weakened infrastructure and still-swollen rivers from Lala’s historic rain.
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