On Thursday, the pioneers of seasonal hurricane forecasts released their first predictions of what the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could hold.
Experts at Colorado State University (CSU) are calling for another active hurricane season in 2025, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 hurricanes reaching Category 3 or stronger (winds of 111 mph or higher).
This is above the 30-year average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.
The Atlantic has been seared with a blistering spate of deadly and destructive hurricane seasons since 2016, with 8 of the last 9 hurricane seasons recording above-average activity, including hyperactive seasons in 2017, 2020 and 2024.
All told, the past 9 hurricane seasons were responsible for three-quarters of a trillion dollars in damage and an estimated 6,000 deaths. During this period, the U.S. was struck by an astounding 24 hurricanes, including 10 Category 3 or stronger hurricanes, the most of any 9-year stretch on record.
What’s behind the above-average forecasts?
The big story leading into last hurricane season was the unprecedented warmth across the Atlantic, extreme water temperatures far outpacing anything previously observed. The severe and long-lasting marine heatwave led to the most aggressive hurricane season outlooks ever issued by both private and government forecasters in 2024.
Though waters have returned to more precedented levels this spring, they remain historically warm across much of the deep tropics, especially on the western side of the Atlantic and through the Caribbean Sea.
Roughly 44% of the Atlantic Main Development Region, or MDR, is experiencing record or near-record water temperatures, a significant area, but also a far cry from the 90% at record or near-record levels for the same time last year.
The relative cooldown has been especially pronounced in the eastern Atlantic closer to Africa, an important bellwether region to watch in the springtime. The temperate waters of late here are an encouraging trend that may suggest the upcoming season could be less active overall than recent hyperactive ones.
The main wildcard as we head into the hurricane season is whether an El Niño or La Niña event happens in the waters of the eastern Pacific by late summer and early fall, when Atlantic hurricane season traditionally peaks. El Niño conditions occur when abnormally warm waters straddle the equator in the Pacific, and can dampen overall Atlantic hurricane activity.
During La Niña episodes, abnormally cool waters in the eastern Pacific can promote hurricane activity in the Atlantic by reducing storm-busting wind shear.
La Niña conditions took hold last winter but have since faded, and most models indicate neutral conditions (neither La Niña or El Niño) will emerge in the next month and persist deep into the hurricane season.
During so-called neutral years, Atlantic storm activity isn’t significantly reduced, and, as during La Niña events, hurricanes often track farther west and closer to the U.S., raising the odds of potential U.S. impacts.
The combination of a warmer-than-average Atlantic and neutral ocean conditions across the eastern Pacific suggest a more active year than usual, with higher chances of U.S. hurricane impacts, according to the CSU forecast team.
Gathering storm clouds at NOAA and the National Weather Service
With only two months until the official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA’s National Weather Service is scrambling to restructure the agency in accordance with guidance from the Trump administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.
Roughly 6% of employees at the already short-staffed National Weather Service were either terminated or took deferred resignations in the first round of cuts in late February. While many of the terminated employees at NOAA – including flight directors from the famed hurricane hunters – have been reinstated since, most remain on paid administrative leave, with no timeline on when they might return to work. Forecast offices safeguarding hurricane-prone coastal areas remain widely understaffed.
Last Thursday, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham announced additional restructuring measures, including a realignment of key offices like the Environmental Modeling Center, or EMC, that oversees the development, improvement, and implementation of all major U.S. weather models, including those critical for hurricane forecasts.
The full extent of the DOGE-directed cuts across NOAA and the broader National Weather Service is still unclear, but according to government-circulated memos, additional restructuring and further large-scale reductions in force are possible before the start of hurricane season.
Internally, forecasters are increasingly concerned that the indiscriminate cuts and significant staffing reductions will impede their ability to access critical data and issue timely warnings to the public. Already, about a dozen National Weather Service offices have announced temporary suspensions of critical twice-daily weather balloon launches – a mainstay of the National Weather Service for over 60 years – due to staffing shortages. The information collected from weather balloons has been shown to dramatically improve the accuracy of forecasts, so much so that during major hurricane threats, it’s common practice for the National Weather Service to supplement twice-daily launches with up to four launches per day at key locations.
Several of the platforms the National Weather Service uses to routinely issue life-saving watches and warnings are supported or maintained by pricey private contracts, which will now require the approval of the Secretary of Commerce who oversees NOAA and the National Weather Service. Some have expressed concern that the additional level of scrutiny may slow or stop the renewal of key contracts, including the procurement of new hurricane hunter aircraft or the 1,000-plus dropsonde instruments they launch each year, instruments which have been shown to improve hurricane forecasts by as much as 15 to 20%.
Already one major NWS contract used by the National Weather Service since 2023 to translate warnings and advisories, including those from the National Hurricane Center and NWS Miami, into Spanish and Chinese was paused this week. The National Weather Service has not yet indicated if it intends to offer translation services for its products this hurricane season.
It only takes one
On Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organization – the international agency tasked with maintaining and updating tropical cyclone names – retired the names Beryl, Helene, and Milton from its rotating list of Atlantic names due to the death and destruction the storms caused in 2024. The names Brianna, Holly and Miguel will replace them and will first appear on the list of names in 2030.
The retirement of the deadly 2024 hurricane names is a sobering reminder that regardless of overall activity in any given season, it only takes one bad hurricane to make a bad season for us in South Florida. Seasonal forecasts can’t tell us exactly when or where a hurricane might strike and even below-average seasons like 1992 can cook up deadly and destructive storms like Hurricane Andrew.
As we’ve learned in recent years, hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint that can take us all the way into November. Take advantage of spring months to adjust your family plans and gather supplies. Mother Nature can act quickly, so you should be ready to as well. Have a plan. Be prepared.
The 2025 hurricane season starts June 1st.
