Rafael strengthened into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds shortly before striking the southern coast of western Cuba at 4:15 PM ET Wednesday near Playa Majana in Artemisa Province.
The hurricane passed to within about 40 miles of Havana shortly before sunset Wednesday, bringing winds gusts as high as 93 mph along Havana Harbor.
Rafael is only the 8th major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane to form in the month of November over the past 60 years and the first major November hurricane since Hurricane Iota, which struck Nicaragua in November 2020.
Rafael is the 5th major hurricane of the very active 2024 hurricane season, only the 10th season in the modern record (since 1966) to record at least five Category 3 or stronger hurricanes and the first since the 2020 hurricane season.
Rafael emerges over the Gulf, stays well west of Florida
Rafael emerged over the Gulf of Mexico north of Cuba late Wednesday, bending westward into southern Gulf waters. While its center passed about 150 miles west of the lower Florida Keys, Rafael still brought gusty tropical storm winds to 47 mph late yesterday in Key West and stinging outer rainbands.
So far, rainfall estimates from radar indicate around 2 to 5 inches in the lower Keys, with the heaviest rainfall in a band between Naval Air Station (NAS) Key West and Big Coppitt Key and Cudjoe Key to the east. Lingering bands, passing showers, and tropical squalls will persist this morning, primarily through the lower and middle Keys, but conditions will gradually improve later today and by Friday as Rafael pulls westward and away from Florida.
Rafael coasting south of the U.S.
Rafael is only the 5th hurricane in 60 years observed over the Gulf of Mexico in November. The unusually late Gulf hurricane will plot an unusual westward course through the central Gulf of Mexico, staying safely north and east of Mexico and south of the U.S. into this weekend.
Although Rafael should maintain its hurricane status through the weekend, it’s expected to quickly weaken by the start of next week and before it has a chance to pose any significant threat to land. While forecast models are still divided on whether Rafael or its remnants track into the northern or southern Gulf early next week, by that point it’ll be quickly toppled by a firehose of shear and dry air.
Rafael is not expected to pose any significant threat to the U.S., though ongoing flooding indirectly associated with Rafael’s tropical moisture surge that we previewed in yesterday’s newsletter will continue to affect inland areas of Georgia and South Carolina today.
No signs of trouble behind Rafael
A disturbance that spun off a dying cold front in the Atlantic will move westward and bring showers and storminess through the Greater Antilles – including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands – from today into the weekend.
It should pass south of Florida by late Sunday into Monday and may bump up rain chances across South Florida to start next week. The system has only a low chance of development over the next day or two and poses no threat to Florida.
