After a banner start to October that included 3 simultaneous hurricanes (Kirk, Leslie, and Milton) during its first week – a first in our record books for the month of October – with more activity packed into one month than we see in some Augusts and Septembers (traditionally our busiest months) combined, including the strongest hurricane in almost two decades (Milton), a devastating Florida hurricane hit and a surprise hurricane (Oscar) last weekend – the smallest we’ve ever measured, the tropics are finally simmering down to end the month.
It’s been a wild ride during what is conventionally the home stretch of the season.
Caribbean in the spotlight for later next week
As we’ve discussed in earlier newsletters, we’ll have our eye on the Caribbean for the middle to latter part of next week and into next weekend.
We haven’t seen any big changes in the models with the possibility of mischief in the central or southwestern Caribbean next week, aside from perhaps pushing the development window back to next weekend or even early the following week.
Generally, conditions look to favor some gradual organization of increasing storminess by next Thursday and Friday. Models are keying in on the area around eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti for low-pressure development, but it’s still hazy how organized things actually get.
As we mentioned yesterday, it’s too far out to concern ourselves with and at this point in the season, mainland U.S. threats become an odd exception. If that doesn’t provide extra comfort, wind shear is locked in along our coastlines – including here in South Florida – for the foreseeable future, which will help to keep any shenanigans to our south through next week.
