An organizing cluster of storms over the western Caribbean east of Central America is expected to gradually develop into a named storm over the next day or two and could quickly strengthen into a formidable hurricane as it accelerates toward the northeastern Gulf Coast – including parts of the Florida panhandle and Big Bend – by late Thursday into early Friday.
On Monday, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches were issued for portions of Mexico and Cuba.
The next name on the list is Helene.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine forthcoming
On Monday morning, the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, and a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum.
The government of Cuba issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and a Hurricane Watch for Pinar del Rio.
Our most reliable intensity guidance suggests a significant hurricane threat mounting as the strengthening system encounters a deep pool of warm water over the east-central Gulf of Mexico by mid-week. It’s increasingly likely that a major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane will threaten parts of north Florida or its sweeping Big Bend before the work week is done.
Residents from Mobile to Tampa especially should check back frequently on the forecasts this week. Those along Florida’s entire west coast will also need to monitor the looming storm’s path, as even a glancing blow could deliver heavy rain and significant coastal impacts.
If the potential tropical cyclone strengthens as robustly as many models forecast, its fast forward speed by the latter part of the week could also spell trouble far inland across the southeastern U.S., with widespread impacts stretching into north Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and the Carolinas, beginning in earnest on Friday.
The forecast is pointing toward a particularly damaging and impactful week of weather for the southeastern U.S.
An environment ripe for strengthening
Over the next day or two, we’ll be watching for how quickly the system organizes and whether or not it develops a compact core, a feature recent systems struggled to attain. A consolidated core – characterized by a tight rather than broad wind field and concentrated region of storminess – could kick off a period of rapid intensification as the system moves into a ripe environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The orientation of upper-level winds from a nearby jet stream dip should generally promote steady to quick strengthening for Wednesday and Thursday and our most reliable high-resolution hurricane models advertise a devastating major hurricane on approach to north Florida.
Intensity forecasts are always the sticky widget of hurricane forecasts but the high ceiling and the possibility of a hurricane quickly strengthening on approach to land means that those in the path should be ready to implement their hurricane plans and evacuate if recommended to do so.
Wet and windy weather for South Florida
While South Florida isn’t under a direct threat from the developing storm system, we will see periphery effects, mainly from an extended period of wet and windy weather beginning tomorrow night for the Keys and on Wednesday for Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
The rounds of tropical downpours may last all the way through Friday, which could lead to localized flooding, especially toward the end of the week.
No imminent threats elsewhere across the Atlantic
Across the wider Atlantic, a tropical disturbance off the west coast of Africa is forecast to develop by the middle to latter part of the week over the eastern Atlantic, but models generally turn the system into the open Atlantic well before reaching the islands.