On Tuesday evening, the National Hurricane Center outlined an area of possible tropical development in the western Caribbean for early next week.
The system, which we began discussing in this newsletter on Monday, is expected to develop within a larger area of spin known as the Central American Gyre or CAG which periodically occurs in May and June and again from September to November, extending from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.
Within this Central American Gyre, more defined areas of spin can take shape, which is what our computer models are indicating come the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico.
This scenario of western Caribbean development later in September and October by way of the Central American Gyre was something we covered back in August as we discussed areas to watch for the back half of the season.
Because the initial disturbance is so large and sprawling, it’s unclear exactly where within this broader CAG a defined area of low pressure will ultimately form. For now, forecast models indicate the most likely formation zone will be somewhere over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Overall, the atmosphere appears conducive for organization next week as the system lifts northward. That said, a wide range of possible outcomes is on the table, especially this far out and without even the broader gyre having yet formed, so expect long-range computer models to vary wildly from run-to-run.
Looking at the forecast ensembles – forecast models run dozens and dozens of times with different starting conditions – helps to paint a better picture of the hazy forecast.
The gamut runs from low, slow, or no development to a named storm or hurricane come next week according to the ensembles, which means we’ll need to stay patient and wait for a clearer picture to emerge. Given the time of year and largely conducive environment, everyone along the Gulf Coast and on the Florida peninsula – including here in South Florida – should monitor the forecast trends into this weekend and early next week.
Gordon goes poof…for now
Gordon – which weakened to a Tropical Depression over the weekend – finally fell to a hostile central Atlantic on Monday. Though its remnants could try to reform this week, it’ll stay out to sea and poses no threat to land.