It’s been an unexpected and unusual hurricane season. The season has produced 4 hurricanes so far, about what’s typical through middle September, but certainly below what we would’ve expected given the conditions going into this season and the historic seasonal forecasts.
Overall activity to date has fallen from a top starter only a month ago to about average today. We’ve certainly seen seasons blow the lid off after middle September; 2020 had lower overall activity by this point in the season but ended as one of our most active on record. But for now at least, our forecast models aren’t showing a big run of activity in the near term.
That said, it’s also been one of the more impactful hurricane seasons to-date. Through yesterday, we’ve recorded 6 named storms, all of which have struck land. Only 4 other hurricane seasons in the modern record have observed 6 or more consecutive landfalls across the basin and only one other – 1979 – saw the first 6 named storms of the season make landfall.
Additionally, 3 of the 4 hurricanes that have formed thus far have struck the U.S. Although there’s no such thing as half a hurricane landfall, in the modern satellite era (since 1966), the U.S. has only averaged 1.5 hurricane landfalls annually, so we’ve already doubled the average annual hurricane landfalls with still about 50% of seasonal activity in front of us. And 1 in 4 hurricane seasons pass by without any U.S. hurricane hits, with 1 in 3 hurricane seasons not notching their first hurricane landfall until after middle September.
We’re glad to see the season underperforming expectations in the overall activity department, but not so glad to see how impactful the ones that have formed have been. It reminds us of the adage that it only takes one, no matter how active the overall season is.
Keeping an eye off the southeast U.S. early next week
As we’ve previewed in recent newsletters, another stalled front is expected to spawn an initially non-tropical area of low pressure, this time over the warm waters off the southeast U.S.
Some of our forecast models are indicating the possibility that this non-tropical frontal low could gradually gain tropical characteristics for the early to middle part of next week as it retrogrades back toward the Carolinas or mid-Atlantic. Regardless, we’ll need to watch for the possibility of coastal flood issues with persistent onshore flow around the low-pressure area into the Outer Banks and lower Chesapeake next week.
For now the NHC is keeping low odds of the low pressure becoming a tropical or subtropical system, but interests from the Carolinas into the mid-Atlantic should follow the trends this weekend.
Gordon forms but the struggles continue
Tropical Depression Seven was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon late Friday morning, but the system continues to struggle against hostile upper-level winds and nearby dry air over the open waters of the east-central Atlantic.
Little change in strength is expected with Gordon this weekend, and some of our reliable models show the system weakening back into a tropical depression or even remnant low. The system will pose no threat to land and should begin to recurve northward by later next week.
Meanwhile Invest 94L is bringing disorganized storminess to the northeastern islands of the Caribbean but isn’t expected to develop.