Francine strengthened into a hurricane by late Tuesday and continued to strengthen into the morning hours Wednesday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as it made its final approach to coastal Louisiana.
The hurricane is forecast to make landfall later in the day on Wednesday in the lower parishes of south-central Louisiana as a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane but will quickly weaken as it races inland.
Though dangerous and damaging winds will be a hazard this evening, especially for those areas west of New Orleans and east of Lafayette in east-central Louisiana, the most significant threat will be from flooding, both at the coast and inland.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting up to 10 feet of life-threatening storm surge for the low-lying stretch of coastline south of New Iberia to near Grand Isle west of the Mississippi River delta.
Additionally, up to a foot of rain is possible across several states as Francine pushes inland, from southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi to lower Alabama and parts of the Florida panhandle. Numerous flash floods should be expected, especially across southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and the threat of flooding rains will extend further inland during the day Thursday.
Francine strengthens but leveling off
Francine took advantage of a smaller and more organized core overnight to steadily strengthen overnight and into the early morning hours Wednesday. Winds from instruments dropped in the storm’s eyewall by hurricane hunters around daybreak showed very gusty winds just above the surface and supporting 90 mph sustained wind estimates from the National Hurricane Center, making Francine a high-end Category 1 hurricane.
That said, pressures have slowly risen this morning according to ongoing hurricane hunter missions, indicating the strengthening trend may have ended for now.
Though Francine has much of the day left over warm Gulf waters, increasingly hostile upper-level winds should begin to take a toll on it as it nears the coast, and the hurricane will likely degrade as it nears landfall later today.
It’s worth noting that any weakening or leveling off near landfall shouldn’t appreciably change the expected hazards, as the NHC considers these changes in its forecast.
Watching off the southeast U.S. this weekend
As we previewed in Tuesday’s newsletter, another pesky stalled front dangling off the southeast U.S. this weekend may be the catalyst for tropical trouble into next week.
The NHC added this area to its tropical outlook this morning and for now gives it a low chance of development. Forecast models are in good agreement with developing an initially non-tropical area of low pressure offshore Georgia and South Carolina Saturday into Sunday and moving it back westward toward the Carolinas for early next week.
We’ll continue to keep you updated, but those with interests from northeast Florida to North Carolina should monitor the forecast trends in the days ahead.
Development likely over the open Atlantic next week
A well organized tropical wave designated Invest 93L should develop over the next few days and strengthen over the open waters of the central Atlantic next week. Despite high development odds, forecast models are in good agreement with turning what forms from 93L northward next week, where it will stay over water and well removed from any land areas.
Meanwhile, two other areas are being marked by NHC for low development odds east of the Caribbean.
Newly designated Invest 94L, the westernmost of the two areas, has a well-defined circulation but storminess is sputtering for now. The low-pressure area to its east – Invest 92L – remains broad for now. Both areas have a narrow window for some development today and tomorrow before conditions quickly become less conducive. Neither is expected to pose a significant threat to the islands.
