Final preparations are underway in coastal Louisiana where Francine is forecast to strike as a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon or evening. The high-end tropical storm is expected to become a hurricane later today and strengthen – perhaps quickly – as it accelerates toward the northern Gulf Coast. Though a plateau or even some weakening is possible as Francine approaches the coast on Wednesday, it’s expected to remain a hurricane through landfall.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for most lower parishes in southern Louisiana, from the Texas-Louisiana border to Grand Isle, about 50 miles south of New Orleans. A hurricane warning means winds of 74 mph or stronger are expected for these areas.
The most serious threat from Francine will be from the water, both at the coast and inland. Life-threatening storm surge flooding of up to 10 feet is possible for a wide stretch of coastal Louisiana, from south of Lake Charles in southwestern Louisiana to near Grand Isle west of the Mississippi River Birdfoot Delta.
Additionally, Francine is forecast to bring up to a foot of rain across much of Louisiana and parts of Mississippi through Friday morning which could produce significant inland flash flooding.
Tropical storm conditions (winds of 39 mph or higher) are forecast to reach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts by early Wednesday.
Francine reorganizing after struggling with dry air overnight
After quickly coming together during the day Monday, with a nascent eye appearing on land-based radar and visible satellite, Francine’s developing core was disrupted overnight by a moat of dry air wrapping into its center. Though hurricane hunters flying Francine this morning are finding its still-organizing but circular eye open to the northwest, thunderstorms are again blossoming and wrapping around its center, indicating what could be a reorganizing trend. Additionally, pressures are lowering again, which suggests Francine’s winds should also increase in the hours ahead.
As Francine moves away from the high terrain of northern Mexico, the dry intrusions should become less of an issue and the environment ahead looks largely favorable for at least steady strengthening today. By Wednesday, increasing upper-level winds may pose a challenge to continued strengthening and, depending on the orientation of the winds aloft, could even induce some weakening as Francine nears landfall in Louisiana.
For now, NHC is forecasting a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall, but we’ll need to follow the intensity trends closely today and see how Francine juggles the upper-level wind flow into the early hours Wednesday.
There’s still some uncertainty in exactly where Francine comes ashore in Louisiana and all those in the path should follow the instructions of local officials today.
Possible Atlantic development but no looming threats
The National Hurricane Center continues to mark two systems in the deep Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean for possible development.
Models have latched on to the easternmost of these two disturbances for development by this weekend and into next week. Neither system poses any threat to land.
Next week, we may also need to look closer to home once again as a stalled front may serve as a trigger for tropical mischief off the southeast coast. We’ll have time to follow the forecast trends in the coming days.