As we’ve discussed in recent newsletters, the tropical struggles across the Atlantic only days removed from the hurricane season peak – especially in a season forecast to bring exceptional activity – feel more unusual with each passing day.
Although the National Hurricane Center is marking four systems today in the Atlantic, none appears destined for development anytime soon. The last active tropical system anywhere in the Atlantic was Ernesto back in the early hours of August 20th. If we make it to the peak of the season in or around September 10th without any active systems in the Atlantic, it would be the first time in the modern record we’ve seen a complete shutout during that traditionally busy 3-week stretch (we have to go back to 1929 to find a season without any active tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes between August 21st and September 10th). For reference, last hurricane season saw 9 named storms and 3 hurricanes pass through the Atlantic during this period.
Of course, we still have a lot of hurricane season left to go – a full 60% by way of tropical activity – and we’ve already had a Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean and two landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. It only takes one, even in an unusual season like this, and South Florida’s greatest risk for a hurricane strike doesn’t come until October. No one’s going to complain about these unexpected doldrums, but we shouldn’t let it dupe us into thinking the season’s done.
Caribbean disturbance moving inland over Central America
The disturbance we’ve been tracking through the Atlantic since last Tuesday is now moving inland into Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico.
It’s expected to emerge over the far southern Gulf of Mexico early next week, where some slow development is possible. We’ll need to watch for any entanglements with the stalled cold front draped to its north over the western Gulf, which could give it a boost and draw it farther north if it gets close enough. For now, development odds remain low, but we’ll continue to monitor the trends.
Feisty Gulf frontal low staying south of Texas for now
The frontal low pressure we discussed in Thursday’s newsletter over the western Gulf of Mexico – now designated Invest 90L – has been mercifully staying mostly offshore this morning. This has kept much of the heaviest rain directly associated with the low-pressure system just south of coastal Texas and Louisiana. Nevertheless, a heavy rain threat will persist along the frontal zone as the system pushes east, especially over southern and southeastern Louisiana, where numerous flash floods are possible today into early Saturday.
Given the disorganized nature of the thunderstorms and strong winds overhead, tropical development of the frontal low isn’t expected.
No immediate concerns across the Atlantic
Invest 99L over the northwestern Atlantic between Bermuda and the northeastern U.S. is along the same stalled front extending down into the Gulf of Mexico. Although it’s producing tropical-storm force winds, it’s non-tropical and should remain so as it moves quickly northward into the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
Meanwhile, a disturbance in the eastern Atlantic remains broad and disorganized. Development is unlikely at least into the early part of next week.