Tropical Storm Debby’s hollowed out core – characterized by a wide, dry center nearly 60 miles across – is drifting eastward off the South Carolina coast this morning. Although the storm is back over water, its broad wind field and haphazard organization will limit any significant strengthening. Debby is expected to maintain 45 to 50 mph maximum winds as it makes a U-turn slowly back toward South Carolina today.
The Carolinas will face another day or two of deluges before Debby quickens its pace northward and exits the southeast on Friday.
Officially since Monday morning, Charleston International Airport picked up almost 10 inches of rain, with over a foot of rain observed in the Lowcountry between Savannah and Charleston, centered on Edisto Beach and Beaufort and Colleton Counties.
Earlier in the week, Debby’s wide arms of torrential rains stretched from the Sarasota-Bradenton area south of Tampa, where totals reached over 17 inches in south-central Manatee County, to almost 13 inches in the Lake City area of north-central Florida 60 miles west of Jacksonville.
Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing or forecast for the remainder of the week for dozens of rivers across the western Florida peninsula and north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas.
Another foot or more through Thursday
Debby will hang around the Carolinas today and for most of Thursday which means additional rounds of tropical rainbands training over many of the same areas.
The National Weather Service has a high risk of excessive rain – their most severe rainfall outlook – covering the area from just north of Charleston along the coastal plain of South Carolina to the Piedmont of North Carolina, including Raleigh-Durham and Wilmington, where up to a foot or more of additional rain is forecast locally.
By Friday, Debby will finally accelerate away from the southeast states and into the Mid-Atlantic and northeast where its remnants could bring a serious flood threat from central Pennsylvania and New York to Vermont and New England, places already waterlogged – chock full of saturated soils and bloated rivers – from heavy rains of recent weeks.
Disturbance into Central America and another wave to watch next week
The strong tropical wave we’ve been following this week through the Caribbean kept too quick of a pace to develop and will be moving into parts of Central America by early tomorrow. With its proximity to land, development isn’t expected.
The next disturbance we’ll be following in the Atlantic will be rolling off Africa today or tomorrow. Our forecast models suggest some slow development by early next week as it nears the easternmost Caribbean islands.
For now, it’s something we’ll keep an eye on for our friends in the islands, but we’ll have plenty of time to monitor the trends. It’s far too early to say much about its long-term prospects but it’s worth watching into next week.