In the modern hurricane record – since satellites came around in the 1960s – most Julys observe at least one named storm, but about 1 in 3 Julys come and go without any new named storms. Additionally, most Julys – nearly 70% – pass by without any new hurricane formations.
This July looks very typical of most others so far, with one named storm forming – Tropical Storm Chris back on July 1st (UTC time) – and no new hurricane formations. If current trends hold, we could even skate through the remainder of the month without any new storms or hurricanes.
Of course, as we’ve been discussing all week, a lull in late July is more typical than not and some big hurricane seasons like 1999, 2004, and 2012 saw blanks in the named storm and hurricane departments in July.
When will the tropical Atlantic pick back up?
For now, it looks like the Atlantic will snooze along for the last week or two of July. The upper-level wind configuration favors sinking air, which dries out the atmosphere and suppresses organized tropical activity.
Forecast models show the sinking air pattern moving out by the end of July and a more typical La Niña configuration settling in by August. This means a prolonged period of sinking air in the eastern Pacific and rising air over the Atlantic, which would favor an active stretch beginning next month.
So another week or two of calm followed by what could be a busy period ahead. Take the time over the next week or two to review your hurricane plans and insurance policies before hurricane season heads into primetime.