Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has its axis along 74W south of 22N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 28N between 67W and 74W, enhanced by a stationary front located just to the NW-N of the wave in the W Atlantic waters.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to near 09N20W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from 09N20W to just NE of the coast of Brazil and French Guiana at 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N, and E of 34W.

Gulf Of America

A weak 1016 mb low near 25N87W extends a cold front to near 20N97W. A stationary front is analyzed from the low to 23N82W. A reinforcing cold front has entered the NW Gulf waters, extending from 30N86W to 26N96W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend from the Florida Panhandle toward the Bay of Campeche, owing to the influence of these fronts and an upper level trough over the region. Near gale-force winds prevail in the areas of convection, then fresh to strong NE winds are occurring behind the low/front. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds persist elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail to the N and W of the cold front and slight seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold fronts and low will merge and the resultant front is forecast to reach from near Fort Myers, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Mon morning, clearing the basin Mon night. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas follow the frontal boundary, and these marine conditions will persist through Mon evening. High pressure will then follow the front. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten across the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, on Tue, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas. The high pressure will shift eastward, and winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the work-week.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over the central Caribbean including associated active convection.

A surface trough extends from the south-central coast of Cuba to near 10N82W. This trough is likely interacting with the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough which runs across the SW Caribbean, resulting in scattered moderate to strong convection S of 13N and W of 77W. Elsewhere, recent scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trades across much of the central and E Caribbean, with fresh to strong trades occurring S of 16N between 65W and 75W. Moderate seas are across much of the central and E Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough in the W Caribbean will shift westward through Mon while dissipating. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are in the wake of a tropical wave, currently moving across the central Caribbean, with axis near 74W. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will dominate most of the central Caribbean on Mon. A cold front will to move across the NW Caribbean by Mon night into early Tue while the above mentioned tropical wave is expected to merge with the frontal boundary.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N45W to 30N65W to 22N79W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring ahead of the front, generally N of 22N and W of 62W. This convection is likely also being enhanced by an upper level trough over the Gulf of America and a tropical wave to the south of the area. In the eastern Atlantic, an occluded low centered near 29N29W extends a cold front from 31N26W to 21N34W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of this front. Latest ASCAT passes captured fresh to strong N to NW winds to the N and W of the low, with fresh to strong S to SE winds along the front. Rough seas are analyzed generally N of 23N between 23W and 40W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, the pressure gradient between high pressures N of the area and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh trades S of 25N between 45W and 70W, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Moderate seas also prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate to a remnant trough and shift westward through Mon. A cold front is forecast to enter the region early Mon morning, slowly shifting SE and reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas by Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front through late Tue, while rough seas persist in its wake through midweek. The front will then weaken and wash out through midweek with improving marine conditions from W to E toward the end of the work-week.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster ERA