Special Features

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Very large, long-period north swell generated by a large fetch of gale-force winds in the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N through Sun. Expect seas of 12-20 ft tonight, subsiding to 12 to 16 ft today, mainly north of 20N and east of about 38W. Seas over these northeastern waters will gradually diminish in areal coverage with the remaining very rough seas subsiding below 12 ft near the Canary Islands Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 13W and 20W.

Gulf Of America

A basin-wide ridge is centered by a 1021 mb high located over the north-central Gulf near 28N88W, supporting moderate NE winds and 4-6 ft seas across the southeast Gulf, and moderate S winds and 3-4 ft seas over the western Gulf. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Gulf will maintain mostly moderate SE breezes and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf into the middle of next week, with slight to moderate seas. A trough over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly night through mid week. The pattern will also support light breezes and near calm seas over the eastern Gulf through Wed.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from Windward Passage to the offshore waters of Colombia. Mainly moderate to fresh NNE winds follow the front, with locally strong winds being observed in the lee side of southern Cuba and offshore Nicaragua. Seas are moderate to 6-8 ft behind the front. Ahead of the front, over the eastern Caribbean, winds are moderate or weaker from the SE and seas are slight to moderate.

For the forecast, cold front extends from Windward Passage to off central Colombia. The southern portion of the front will dissipate through this morning, while the northern portion will continue to move across the northeast Gulf and Windward Islands through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and locally rough seas will persist through Atlantic passages and in the lee in of Hispaniola through Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Bahamas in the wake of the front will support pulses of fresh to strong winds off Colombia Mon and Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section for details on large northerly swell that is impacting the far northeast waters of the discussion area.

A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda near 31N64W to eastern Cuba into the central Caribbean Sea. A few showers and thunderstorms are active near a pre- frontal trough parallel to the boundary from 24N70W into Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building toward the region from the SE U. S. is leading to fresh to strong N winds and rough to very rough seas west of the front to about 77W. Ahead of the front to 55W, winds are fresh to strong from the S to SW and seas are rough to 10 ft.

In the east Atlantic, 990 mb low pressure is centered near 31n21W, moving east toward the Canary Islands at 10-15 kt. A few thunderstorms are moving ahead of the low into the Canary Islands. Strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas are wrapping around the low, impacting the area north of 20N. Gentle to moderate breezes are evident elsewhere, with large northerly swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of the front, and mainly N of 25N, will continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east through Sun as the front moves eastward as a cold front. This system is forecast to reach from 31N63W to Hispaniola later this morning, and from 31N57W to Puerto Rico by Sun morning. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of NE Florida Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters N of 27N into the middle of the next week before starting to diminish Wed night.

Posted about 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen