Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 00N50. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 04N between 13W and 23W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from the western Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front, affecting the eastern Gulf, mainly E of 86W as well as parts of the Florida peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW and north-central Gulf in association with an occluded low spinning over northern Louisiana. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ahead of the front, except N of 28N where fresh to strong S winds are noted. Gentle to moderate winds are W of the front. Seas are 4 to 6 ft E of the front, and 3 to 5 ft in the wake of the front.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms occurring along and east of a stationary front, currently extending from the northern Gulf Coast through the Yucatan Peninsula, will continue through Mon, producing strong and erratic winds and rapidly building seas. The front will drift eastward early this week, exiting the basin on Tue. Farther west, a trough is slated to move across the northern Gulf of America tonight through Mon, supporting pulsing moderate to fresh W to NW winds across the northern basin into Tue. Looking ahead, high pressure will build across the Gulf by midweek. A strengthening pressure gradient between deepening low pressure in the central United States and the aforementioned high will support fresh to locally strong S to SE winds offshore of Texas and Mexico Tue through late week.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate winds are in the E Caribbean, increasing to fresh speeds between the islands in the Lesser Antilles, particularly N of St. Vincent and the Grenadines Islands. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range in the south-central Caribbean, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the NW Caribbean. A band of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is over the NW Caribbean, the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba, ahead of the frontal boundary located over the eastern Gulf of America. Some showers are thunderstorms are flared-up over the Greater Antilles while patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms over most of Nicaragua, NE Honduras and northern Costa Rica.

For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong trade winds and rough to very rough seas are expected across the central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, into early Wed as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela each afternoon and night. Farther east, pulsing moderate to fresh E winds and locally rough seas are likely across the Atlantic Passages into the eastern Caribbean through midweek. Looking ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish by late week.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 34N42W. The associated ridge reaches the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles and the NE Caribbean. Under the influence of this system, moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 22N between 45W and 60W with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. Farther E, a weak 1014 mb low pressure is located SE of the Madeira Islands near 31N14W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse offshore of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles into this evening. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected to develop tonight and continue into Tue offshore of central and northern Florida as a strengthening pressure gradient develops between high pressure in the western Atlantic and low pressure in the southeastern United States. A cold front associated with the low pressure system is slated to move offshore of the southeastern U.S. On Tue and meander through midweek, before weakening and lifting northeastward. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N this week. Locally rough seas in NE swell will impact the waters near the Lesser Antilles and across the passages into the Caribbean through late week.

Posted 1 day, 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr