Monsoon Trough/Intertropical Convergence Zone

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 01N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02S30W to near 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 07S to 06N between 15W and 21W and between 27W and 49W.

Gulf Of America

A portion of a stationary front extends over the coast of Texas, while a cold front extends from north of Apalachicola, FL to New Orleans, LA. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the front over the NE Gulf. To the SW, the typical thermal trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas along the northern western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, but mostly gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop across much of the basin west of 85W tonight. These winds will support building rough seas in this region the middle of the week through late week. East of 85W, moderate SE winds will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds Wed into Thu, including the Florida Straits.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and a 1010 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere west of 80W, except for fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds are found over the western Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail east of 80W, with seas in the 3-6 ft range west of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue before strengthening to near-gale force Wed through the weekend. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to near-gale force speeds, with rough seas developing for the second half of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will strengthen with building rough seas dominating the basin Thu into the upcoming weekend. Large E swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas.

Atlantic Ocean

A mid level short wave trough moving across the southeastern United States supporting scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 73W and 76W. Farther east, broad high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1033 mb high center that is located over the north- central Atlantic near 35N44W. The associated gradient supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west of 42W. A cold front is moving across the eastern Atlantic and extends from 30N23W westward to 28N43W. No significant weather is occurring with this front. Fresh NW to N winds are found along and north of the front, with rough seas in long- period NW swell. In the eastern part of the area, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east of about 40W. Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The building high will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas across the waters south of 27N, including through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean, by the middle of the week.

Posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv