Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning:

Latest ASCAT satellite derived winds data reveal the 1014 mb low to be near 29N55W. Strong to gale-force NE to E winds are seen across the northern halve of the low. Seas at 12 to 18 ft (3. 5 to 5. 5 m) are found at the western and northern half from the center, north of 26N between 55W and 60W. This low will continue to weaken this afternoon and evening, allowing winds to drop below gale-force this afternoon. Seas will also subside gradually and should be below 12 ft by early Sat morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/marine/offshores. php for more information this event.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs west-southwestward to near 06N14W. An ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 01N32W to 03N40W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N to 05N between 20W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is note south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 05N between 10W and 15W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Panama.

Gulf Of America

A cold front stretches southwestward from near Tampa, Florida to 24N94W, then curves northwestward as a stationary front to northeast Mexico. Patchy showers are occurring along this frontal boundary. A surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of the front. Gentle to moderate NW to NE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Winds and seas north of the front should begin to subside late this afternoon as the front weakens. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are then expected over much of the Gulf this weekend as the front slowly dissipates. Locally fresh NE winds will be possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sun as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas will develop over the central and eastern Gulf early next week as another cold front pushes off the coast of the southeastern United States. Locally strong NE winds and rough seas will be possible through the Florida Straits.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the western Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trades with 8 to 10 ft seas are present at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft dominate the northwestern and far southwestern basin. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force winds and rough seas are expected offshore from northern Colombia through early next week as low pressure prevails over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur over much of the basin through this weekend, supported by high pressure to the north. Winds may occasionally pulse to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, rough seas in E to SE swell in the Atlantic waters will slowly subside through tonight, before rough seas redevelop Sat night into Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front passing to the north of the Caribbean will support widespread fresh NE winds west of 70W by early next week, with strong winds possible through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western and central Atlantic.

A weak cold front curves southwestward from the aforementioned low in the Special Features section to 25N57W, then continues as a shear line to just east of the central Bahamas. Patchy showers are found up to 30 nm along either side of the front/shear line. Convergent southerly winds east of the low and front are producing scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 47W and 53W. Another cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolinas across 31N78W to beyond Daytona Beach, Florida. Patchy showers are evident up to 40 nm along either side of the front. Convergent southerly winds farther east are generating scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 72W and 77W. To the south, a surface trough embedded within the trades is causing similar convection near and offshore State Amapa, Brazil. At the eastern Atlantic, a third cold front curves northwestward from the Canary Islands to beyond 30N31W. Scattered showers are noted up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong SE to WSW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are seem north of the cold front off Florida. Outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SSE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed large swells are dominate the western Atlantic north of 05N/Greater Antilles and west of 50W. Farther east, north of 25N between 35W and 50W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft in large northerly swell exist. To the south from 05N to 25N between 35W and 50W, moderate to fresh ENE to E trades with 9 to 11 ft seas in large NE swell are found. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected into this evening to the north and west of the low mentioned in the Special Features section, north of 27N and east of 62W. Widespread rough to very rough seas in N to NE swell associated with this storm system will continue east of 65W, with very rough seas in excess of 12 ft expected north of 26N into this evening. Seas will slowly diminish early Sat through Sat night. Elsewhere, fresh to strong S to SW winds, with locally near-gale force winds, and rough seas will occur offshore of Florida to 70W ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of the southeastern U. S. Winds will turn to the W and weaken from west to east behind the front this afternoon through tonight. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will push off the coast of the southeastern U. S. late Sun into early Mon, supporting widespread strong NE winds and rapidly building seas in the wake of the front into the middle of next week.

Chan Posted 39 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster