Tropical Depression 19 strengthened into Tropical Storm Sara Thursday afternoon in the western Caribbean. Life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides are expected in Honduras through the weekend, the National Hurricane Center reported.
As of Thursday afternoon, the system was about 205 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras. It was moving west at 12 mph with 40 mph maximum sustained winds.
“The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras,” the NHC reported. “The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.”
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua border and for the Bay Islands of Honduras.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua border and for the Bay Islands of Honduras.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas.
Local 10 hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry reported Thursday that over the past 24 hours, we’ve seen big changes in the forecast beyond this weekend and encouraging trends for the Sunshine State. Rather than keeping Sara over the Caribbean and strengthening it into a powerful hurricane, the models largely move it inland over Central America now, weakening it while swinging what remains of the system through the Yucatán Peninsula by Monday.
A wider turn into the Gulf of Mexico to start next week means not only more time over land to help weaken the circulation but more exposure to dry, continental air and hostile winds that would prevent significant re-intensification.
It’s quite possible if the current trends continue that parts of Florida will be dealing with remnants of a storm next week instead of a bonafide tropical threat, though it’s still too soon to completely rule out the latter.
Those in Florida will want to continue to check back on the forecasts in the days ahead but for now the trends are in our camp.
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