Recon Finds Rafael Steady State As It Nears Jamaica

Discussion

At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 77.2 West. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward turn with a little more acceleration is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to be near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 h, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from dropsonde data from the Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

Watches and Warnings

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has upgraded all the provinces previously under a Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning. The government of Cuba has also upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for, * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for, * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for, * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through Tuesday morning for Jamaica, and within 36 h for portions of Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Land Hazards

Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight into Tuesday morning and are expected in parts of west-central Cuba, possible farther east in central Cuba, and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding and mudslides could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States by mid to late week. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide,

Dry Tortugas, 1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys, 1-2 ft

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.