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How Hurricane Milton is expected to impact South Florida as it continues to strengthen

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, Fla. – Hurricane Milton, which strengthened to a Category 5 as of Monday afternoon, shows winds intensifying to 175 mph with the pressure dropping to 911 millibars as the storm moves east at 9 mph. The powerful hurricane is gaining strength as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Visible satellite imagery reveals a well-defined eye, with sinking air in the storm’s center. This atmospheric setup, combined with warm sea surface temperatures, is allowing Milton to continue rapidly intensifying as it crosses the Gulf, according to Local 10 Meteorologist Peta Sheerwood.

Milton is expected remain a Category 5 hurricane until early Wednesday, when it is expected to weaken to a Category 4 hurricane by the morning.

By Wednesday evening, sustained winds are projected to decrease to 125 mph as the storm approaches landfall along Florida’s west coast. Landfall is expected late Wednesday, anywhere from Cedar Key to Fort Myers, with impacts stretching across the state, according to the National Weather Center.

Hurricane watches are in effect for areas from Cedar Key down to Fort Myers, including Tampa and Orlando. Tropical storm watches are in place for portions of the peninsula, including Key West, where tropical storm-force winds are expected on Wednesday.

Meteorologists have noticed a slight southern shift in Milton’s track, and the storm appears to be slowing down over the Gulf. As a result, storm surge is expected to be a major concern along the west coast of Florida, with areas like Tampa Bay and Sarasota projected to see up to 12 feet of saltwater inundation. The Florida Keys may experience storm surge between 1 and 3 feet.

Flooding is also a concern across South Florida, where a flood advisory is in effect for Miami-Dade County until 3:45 p.m. Heavy rainfall has already fallen west of Homestead, with 1 to 3 inches of rain accumulating in areas from Cutler Bay to Homestead. Additional rain could lead to localized flooding, with 1 to 3 more inches expected.

Further north, Aventura down to Miami Beach is under a separate flood advisory, also until 3:45 p.m., as heavy rain moves through the area. Forecasters are closely watching a disturbance to the west that is bringing rain today, though it is not associated with Hurricane Milton.

As the storm progresses, outer bands of rain from Milton are expected to reach South Florida by Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday. Wednesday is forecasted to be a rainy day across the state, with higher rainfall totals in northern Florida.

The region remains under a flood watch until Thursday morning, with an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall expected, and isolated totals up to 10 inches in some areas, especially in the Keys and around Tampa.

Local 10 News will continue to provide updates on Hurricane Milton as it nears landfall and its impacts become clearer.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES, visit Local 10′s hurricane page, the weather page for the hourly local forecast, sign up for the free Talking Tropics newsletter and download the free tracker mobile app on the Apple Store or Google Play.


About the Author
Peta Sheerwood headshot

Growing up in South Florida, Peta Sherwood was intrigued by the ever-changing weather, including sea breeze storms and the development of tropical systems.

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