When we’ve looked across the Atlantic on August 21st in most years of the satellite era – 56% of years to be exact – we’ve seen at least one tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane.
Just last year at this time we had Emily, Gert, Franklin, and soon-to-be Herald churning simultaneously. Today, however, we’ve cleared the board in the wake of Hurricane Ernesto and the Atlantic looks to stay dormant at least through the early part of next week.
Of course after the near-record start across the Atlantic, we can use the break to catch our breath. Although we’re running about average in the named storm department so far, the number of hurricanes, and their strength and duration, is far outpacing typical seasons. There are many seasons we don’t see a single U.S. hurricane landfall, and we’ve already recorded two. We’ve not seen as many of the weaker systems that spin up from non-tropical sources, so 2024 has been a year of quality over quantity.
As we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, a number of short-term obstacles will hold down development odds in the Atlantic for now. One of the main impediments this week is the northerly launching point of tropical disturbances rolling into the Atlantic from Africa.
The disturbances are rolling through the western Sahara where they’re getting mixed up in loads of Saharan dust, which are getting heaved into the tropical North Atlantic with them. The dry environment is starving the disturbances of the more humid-laden air, especially in the middle part of the atmosphere, that’s needed for development.
So for the next week or so, don’t expect much in the way of tropical mischief. As we covered yesterday, by later next week, we may begin to see a little more liveliness across the Atlantic as we turn the calendar to September, the peak month of the hurricane season.
In the meantime, take the time to review your hurricane plans and replenish any necessary supplies, particularly beginning this Saturday as Florida enters another two-week disaster preparedness sales tax holiday.
