Hurricane Beryl’s rampage through the Caribbean continues today as the still-Category 4 hurricane targets Jamaica with a direct strike, bringing a storm surge of up to 9 feet, devastating winds, destructive waves, and heavy rainfall from today into early Thursday.
Though Jamaica is no stranger to big hurricanes, Beryl’s approach will be the most intense hurricane to affect the island since at least Hurricane Dean in 2007, which passed about 30 miles south as a Category 4 hurricane.
Any slight wobble north could put the core of Beryl squarely over Jamaica later today.
The last major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane to make landfall on Jamaica was Category 4 Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, widely considered the hurricane of record for the island country, killing nearly 50 people there, devastating agricultural crops, and damaging or destroying over 100,000 homes.
Track forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for Beryl have been more accurate and consistent than average, especially in the short term, indicating confidence in the forecasts so far. The short-term forecasts for Beryl had been trending slightly northward, however, upping the odds for a direct blow to Jamaica. A westward jog overnight though brought the latest NHC forecast back south, but still within 25-30 miles of Jamaica.
For Jamaica, a wobble one way or the other – the type of sporadic movement we’re unable to call in advance – will be key for whether the island experiences the worst of the hurricane.
The bad news for Jamaica is Beryl has stayed surprisingly resilient against increasing wind shear. Despite some apparent weakening, Hurricane Hunters flying into the hurricane this morning continue to find a healthy Category 4 hurricane.
Regardless of track specifics, conditions will quickly deteriorate today across the island and south-facing shorelines and bays in particular will see destructive and life-threatening impacts from Beryl’s battering surf and coastal surge.
Beryl’s uncertain forecast next week
Beyond Jamaica, Beryl will move just south of the Cayman Islands overnight Thursday on a trajectory toward the Yucatán Peninsula of southern Mexico and the southern Gulf of Mexico. While Beryl is expected to weaken, if history is any indication, the weakening will be gradual and Beryl is expected to remain a hurricane as it strikes the Yucatán or northern Belize by early Friday.
Beyond the weekend, the forecasts get a little murkier. As we previewed in Tuesday’s newsletter, the forecast models diverge by late weekend, largely based on Beryl’s intensity, with a stronger system – possibly a restrengthening hurricane – taking a northward track into northern Mexico or even South Texas or a weaker tropical storm headed farther south into eastern Mexico.
At this time, the most likely scenario is a tropical storm moving into northern Mexico for the start of next week but residents of South Texas will want to keep an eye on the forecasts in the days ahead. We’ll need to see how much Beryl weakens from increasing wind shear and land interaction into this weekend.
Strong tropical wave brings heavy rains today to areas impacted by Beryl
The vigorous tropical wave we’ve been tracking since last week – dubbed Invest 96L – is racing through the Windward Islands today, bringing additional heavy rains and blustery weather to the same islands devastated by Beryl earlier this week.
At least for now, models largely don’t develop 96L and keep it a strong tropical wave as it moves deeper into the Caribbean. Regardless, a staunch ridge of high pressure steering to its north will keep it moving west and away from Florida.