In a remarkable 24-hour period over the weekend, Beryl strengthened from a tropical storm to a 130 mph hurricane, and is now on the doorstep of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada in the easternmost Caribbean as a Category 4 hurricane.
Beryl is on track to be the strongest hurricane to hit the southernmost Windward Islands on record and the most intense for the area since Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago. Potentially catastrophic winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains are forecast to sweep through parts of the easternmost Caribbean today that have never experienced a hurricane with such ferocity in records going back nearly 174 years.
After undergoing an eyewall replacement cyclone late Sunday – a process whereby a secondary eyewall forms, temporarily weakening the hurricane but broadening its wind field – Beryl reloaded on Monday morning, restrengthening back into a Category 4 hurricane as it made its final approach to the island countries of Grenada and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. The hurricane is as strong or stronger now than it was at its peak on Sunday but nearly double the size, which will only widen its destructive footprint.
Beryl barrels through early season records
The developments early Monday follow a historic period of intensification. Beryl is the earliest Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, eclipsing Hurricane Dennis which became a Category 4 hurricane on July 8th, 2005, the first major hurricane in one of the most active and devastating hurricane seasons on record.
Beryl intensified at a dizzying rate – 65 mph in 24 hours – never observed so early in the hurricane season. Its rate of intensification is astonishing for any time of the hurricane season, with only 0.4% of 24-hour intensity changes in the satellite era (since 1966) as explosive as Beryl’s.
Rapid intensification is defined as at least a 35 mph increase in maximum winds in 24 hours. Beryl nearly doubled that threshold on Sunday during a month when the incidence of rapid intensification is least common. Only four other storms in the satellite era have undergone rapid intensification in June, but none as explosively as Beryl.
The hurricane encountered a pristine upper-level environment while moving through record warm Atlantic waters, waters as warm as they typically are in late August and September at the peak of the hurricane season.
The combination of conditions led to the rapid development of a hurricane we wouldn’t typically see for at least another month or two. The typical date for the first Category 3 or stronger hurricane is September 1st.
What’s next for Beryl?
Beryl will continue westward into the Caribbean, where conditions will remain largely supportive for a strong hurricane over the day or so. Though Beryl will bring treacherous seas to all of the eastern Caribbean, its destructive core will stay well south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
By mid-week, as it moves near or south of Jamaica, models show increasing wind shear and largely show a weakening hurricane. There is some disagreement with how much Beryl may weaken and the National Hurricane Center maintains Beryl as a hurricane for the remainder of the week during its trip through the Caribbean.
Clockwise flow around high pressure to the north will steer Beryl westward this week. A slight weakness in this ridge will allow Beryl to gain a little latitude by mid-week, but the ridge will quickly rebuild, pushing Beryl toward the Yucatán Peninsula and southern Gulf of Mexico for Friday into the weekend.
Beryl is not a threat to South Florida.
It’s too soon to rule out a track toward coastal Texas early next week, but for now the upper-level conditions don’t look conducive for Beryl’s long-term health if it takes a path farther up the coast of the western Gulf. It should be a much weaker version of its current self by the weekend either way.
We’ll revisit this part of the forecast as it becomes clearer in the coming days.
Quick hitting Chris already ashore
Invest 94L, the system we discussed much of last week, did find its 15 minutes late Sunday in the extreme southwestern Gulf, becoming a brief tropical storm (Chris) but moving inland over Mexico only two hours after forming.
Up to a foot of heavy rainfall is forecast locally in eastern Mexico as Chris moves farther inland, which will produce areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially in higher terrain.
Debby on deck?
As we previewed in Friday’s newsletter, yet another strong disturbance is following in the footsteps of Beryl. This secondary system – dubbed Invest 96L – is about midway between Africa and the easternmost islands of the Caribbean.
While environmental conditions ahead of Beryl appeared very conducive to development, the upper-levels are forecast to be only marginally supportive of development for 96L, and its close proximity to Beryl’s outflow as it moves into the Caribbean by mid-week may impede development odds.
Nevertheless, for those areas already impacted by Beryl, even a low-end tropical system could cause problems, so it’s something to follow in the days ahead.
For now, forecast models don’t see it surviving through the Caribbean, but as always we’ll keep an eye on the trends.
