A strong tropical disturbance over the eastern Atlantic – designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center – is poised to organize into the first significant storm of the young hurricane season as it churns toward the easternmost Caribbean islands for early next week.
While details still need to be fleshed out, forecast models have taken an aggressive stance for late June, with reliable intensity guidance suggesting good odds of a hurricane by as early as this weekend before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday. On Wednesday evening, the National Hurricane Center cited “unusually conducive” environmental conditions to development for the time of year, factors that we described in Tuesday’s newsletter.
It’s worth noting that only one hurricane in the historical hurricane database dating back to 1851 has been recorded east of the Caribbean islands in June – the first hurricane of 1933, still the most active hurricane season on record by Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE (see our note about the significance of early season storms in the deep Atlantic from our first newsletter of this hurricane season).
The track forecast is straightforward over the coming week. The subtropical high will reign supreme, blocking any escape route into the open Atlantic, and whisking 95L or what develops from it westward into the Caribbean on Monday into Tuesday of next week. Forecast models are in good agreement with this scenario, though the exact track 4 or 5 days out for a storm that hasn’t yet formed should be taken with a grain of salt.
All interests in the eastern Caribbean will want to pay close attention to the forecasts, as development could come quickly over the weekend.
For us on the mainland and in South Florida, we’ll need to sit tight. It’s too soon to say with any measure of skill where it may head beyond the Caribbean, but suffice it to say the Atlantic isn’t going to wait on us this season. Have a plan and be ready for whatever comes our way this season.
Invest 94L racing toward Central America but will stay south of the U.S.
The strong tropical wave that entered the Caribbean on Monday – Invest 94L – is now nearing the coast of Central America. While it’s accompanied by a large area of storminess, the activity for now remains disorganized.
The system has been racing westward at an impressive clip, which, as we discussed in previous newsletters, has been working against its development.
Land entanglements today and into the weekend will probably limit its near-term development, but there’s still a chance it could briefly spin up over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche this weekend before quickly running into Mexico. In general, models are cold to significant development and the upshot is heavy rainfall into parts of Mexico recently affected by tropical systems last week.
Invest 94L is no threat to the U.S.
Another system in the wake of 95L?
Some forecast models indicate the possibility of another fast-moving disturbance developing in the wake of 95L over the eastern Atlantic this weekend. It’s not entirely clear whether this will happen, especially if 95L organizes into a stronger storm, as its outflow could squash any nearby nascent systems. We’ll keep an eye on the trends as anything that did form would track in the same general direction of the islands for the middle part of next week.
For now, the odds are low but not negligible.