Hurricane Tammy has merged with a nearby cold front over the open Atlantic east of Bermuda, shedding its strong central thunderstorms but maintaining hurricane-strength winds.
Though Tammy is now part of a larger frontal system and considered post-tropical, the low-pressure system could still move close enough to Bermuda by tomorrow into early Saturday to bring gusty tropical storm winds to the island territory.
With Tammy now designated post-tropical, the National Hurricane Center will no longer be issuing advisories but instead will monitor Tammy’s remnants for possible redevelopment by late weekend or early next week.
The forecast for the remnants of Tammy beyond the next day or two remains murky, but aside from light impacts in Bermuda, the storm system is not expected to pose any threat to land regardless which direction it takes.
As we’ve discussed in newsletters since last week, Tammy’s remnants will be lingering in an area of competing steering factors and a nudge one way or the other could send the system quickly out to sea or slowly southwest.
The most likely outcome for the leftovers of Tammy will be a slow movement westward this weekend followed by a quicker movement back east or east-northeast into next week. The low-pressure area will be straddling some still-warm waters this weekend so if wind shear relaxes, it’s not out of the question that Tammy regenerates back into a tropical storm.
Significant restrengthening is unlikely even if Tammy reforms and either way will only be a concern for shipping interests.
Where to look for the last week of October
As we discussed in Tuesday’s newsletter, forecast models are advertising a broad area of low pressure lifting slowly northward out of the central Caribbean for early next week. Currently models keep the low-pressure broad, but upper-level winds in the region should stay relatively light – at least for the start of next week – so we’ll keep an eye on this area just in case.
By the middle part of next week, another strong cold front will be plunging into the southeastern U.S., making it down into Florida which will ramp up winds aloft and reinforce hostile conditions to any nearby tropical systems.