We enter September – traditionally the peak month of the Atlantic hurricane season – with the most active hurricane season so far (as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE) since 2008, and the Atlantic shows no signs of slowing.
Last night Jose – a pipsqueak storm expected to barely hang on to its named storm status – defied forecast expectations, strengthening quickly and developing an eye-like feature overnight.
Jose officially topped out this morning with 60 mph winds, though the Hurricane Center noted in its early morning discussion Friday that it could be even stronger. While small Jose is expected to be short-lived and no threat to land, the storm is emblematic of the hurricane season at this point, where storms seem to want to strengthen and often overachieve.
Idalia loses tropical identity but expected to bring gusty winds, heavy rain to Bermuda
Idalia on Thursday shed its tropical characteristics over Atlantic waters east of North Carolina, becoming a swirl of low-level clouds attached to a frontal boundary. The non-tropical low-pressure system is expected to meander around Bermuda in the days ahead, bringing tropical storm conditions, heavy rain, and the potential for flash flooding.
Idalia is forecast to regenerate back into a full-fledged tropical storm by late weekend, but its comeback may be short-lived as wind shear ramps up early next week. The forecast into mid- to late week still remains more uncertain than typical, but models have trended away from a turn back toward the northeast U.S. The storm system may accelerate toward the Canadian Maritimes and Atlantic Canada by the middle to latter part of next week.
Gert resurrected, Franklin headed into the North Atlantic graveyard, and soon-to-be Katia
The remnants of once Tropical Storm Gert regenerated into a tropical depression early Friday over the central Atlantic. Though it may briefly regain tropical storm status, the system will remain weak and over open water.
Meanwhile, Franklin – the Atlantic’s strongest hurricane of 2023 so far – is ending its nearly two-week tropical journey, accelerating into the graveyard of the far North Atlantic this weekend.
Northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, Invest 94L has become better defined and we expect Tropical Depression 12 or Tropical Storm Katia by later this morning. The system will lift quickly northwest and isn’t expected to be a threat to land.
Next week’s main event
All eyes next week will turn to the tropical wave rolling off Africa today and tomorrow. Though development will take a little time, all major models are on board with developing the system by next week as it moves generally toward the west.
Any potential threat to the islands is still a week away, so there’s plenty of time to monitor, but since the system won’t be turning out to sea immediately, it’ll need to be closely watched in the days ahead.
