Hurricane Idalia rapidly strengthened in the 24 hours leading up to landfall in Florida’s Big Bend – from a Category 1 to a Category 4 hurricane – with winds topping out at 130 mph just before landfall early Wednesday.
Idalia officially came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds at Keaton Beach about 15-20 miles northwest of Steinhatchee, Florida, shortly before 8 a.m. ET along the sparsely populated coastline of Taylor County.
Coastal storm surge of up to 16 feet was forecast for the area. Floodwaters reached nearly 7 feet at Cedar Key, Florida, some 40-50 miles southeast of Idalia’s point of landfall.
Higher storm surge flooding is expected in the stretch of Big Bend shoreline west of Cedar Key, but it will take time to collect on-the-ground measurements as we have no real-time gauges in the area closest to Idalia’s strongest onshore winds.
So far the highest verified official wind gusts were reported near the small inner eye of Idalia.
Horseshoe Beach, about 30 miles southeast of where Idalia came ashore but just outside the region of strongest winds, gusted to above 80 mph as did some inland spots like the town of Perry, Florida, where Idalia’s destructive northern and western eyewall moved through shortly after daybreak.
Rest of today and Thursday
Idalia is now racing to the north-northeast at over 20 mph, bringing damaging winds well inland to areas not accustomed to hurricane winds.
In addition to the wind threat, Idalia will bring the risk of flash flooding to areas inland across the southeast, from southern Georgia to the coastal plains of the Carolinas.
There’s also a risk for coastal flooding from the Golden Isles of Georgia to as far north as Pawley’s Island in South Carolina. As Idalia pulls away from the coast on Thursday, soundside flooding is forecast in some areas inside North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
Water levels may stay elevated for a period today along Florida’s Big Bend and additional flooding could still occur in low-lying areas around the times of high tide this afternoon.
What’s next for Idalia?
Once Idalia clears the coast on Thursday it will head east but stall this weekend around Bermuda. Although a small number of forecast models suggest a possible turn back to the south and west toward Florida next week (as a much weaker Idalia redux), they are in the minority camp and we’re not concerned right now of it heading back our way.
Idalia is the 8th Category 3 or stronger hurricane (“major” hurricane) to strike the U.S. Gulf Coast in only 6 years.
Franklin on closest approach to Bermuda, Tropical Depression 11 to stay weak and short-lived
Franklin is now a Category 2 hurricane and making its closest pass to Bermuda, where gusty winds to tropical storm strength are being reported at higher elevations. It continues to produce dangerous surf up the eastern seaboard but will be heading out to sea.
Tropical Depression Eleven formed from Invest 92L in the central Atlantic on Tuesday. The system could become a brief tropical storm, but will stay weak and fizzle out by the end of the week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other disturbances are being monitored in the eastern and central Atlantic but pose no threat to land.