A broad area of spin and storminess pivoting across Central America into the northwestern Caribbean today is forecast to slowly come together by this weekend near the Yucatán Channel and emerge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
The National Hurricane Center expects a tropical depression or storm to form in the coming days and move toward Florida from next Tuesday to Thursday.
While for now models don’t show a strong system approaching Florida, the unique setup in late August is one that could allow the system to overachieve and quickly strengthen more than currently advertised. Given the forecast potential, Floridians are encouraged to check back throughout the weekend for the latest information.
What to expect this weekend
The biggest short-term factor with the low-pressure area is how much entanglement with land disrupts early development. If the fledgling circulation tries to take shape over land – specifically Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula – it will be a speed bump to formation this weekend.
Models have been vacillating on exactly where the spin may try to consolidate, so our focus this weekend will be where and how quickly the system organizes. The current model consensus is for slower development over the weekend due to proximity to land.
Where it’s headed next week
Forecast models are in good agreement on the steering pattern for next week. A dip in the jet stream ushering in a cold front to the southeastern U.S. will pick up the system and steer it northeastward beginning on Monday and slingshotting it toward Florida’s Gulf coast by Tuesday through Wednesday.
Of course, for a state like Florida with a slanted coastline, the fine details matter and as we’ve seen in recent years, a slight deviation in approach angle can translate into a big difference in where a storm system comes ashore.
Given the orientation of upper-level winds, a broader, weaker system would favor an approach farther south over the Florida peninsula. A more organized storm would lean farther north toward Florida’s Big Bend or eastern panhandle.
In either case, the surge of tropical air and storminess will tilt largely east of the low pressure circulation, which means much of Florida will be affected by wet and unsettled weather through mid-week.
How strong will it get?
As we discussed in Thursday’s newsletter, an upper-level low sliding west of the system on Monday into Tuesday will orient upper-level winds in a manner that could promote strengthening – perhaps quickly – as the system accelerates northeastward, but it depends on the exact strength and positioning of the upper-level low, which remains in question.
For now, guidance suggests a tropical depression or tropical storm threat to Florida next week, but those on Florida’s west coast should be aware of the potential for strengthening on approach.
The bottom line
Areas of west-central Florida could use the rainfall, so a weaker system wouldn’t be entirely unwelcome news. However, given the time of year and upper-level setup, those from southwest Florida to the panhandle should monitor the forecasts this weekend as the potential exists for a strengthening storm system on approach next week.
Even low-grade tropical storms can create coastal flooding issues along Florida’s west coast. South Florida can expect a stormy, unsettled pattern through mid-week regardless of development.
Franklin to strengthen but stay west of Bermuda
Franklin remains a tropical storm this morning over the southwestern Atlantic, but is expected to turn northward and strengthen into a hurricane this weekend.
While the storm should pass safely east of the U.S. and west of Bermuda, Newfoundland and the eastern Canadian Maritimes will need to follow its progress into next week.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic
The remnants of Emily will be merging with a front this weekend over the North Atlantic. Invest 92L in the central Atlantic may try to develop next week but will stay over open waters for the foreseeable future.