Tropical Depression Nine, which formed over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, strengthened overnight into Tropical Storm Harold, the 8th named storm of the busy 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Harold remains weak and lopsided, with wind shear from the south shunting most of its weather north of its center. The storm is expected to wash ashore during the midday hours on Tuesday, with a long tail of tropical rains soaking parts of drought-stricken Texas. While localized flooding can’t be ruled out, the parched soils should limit the flood threat, and Harold’s rains will be largely a good-news story for the region.
Over the central Caribbean, Tropical Storm Franklin continues to struggle as it turns toward Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Though disorganized, Franklin’s slow drift will be problematic for heavy rainfall across the area from Hispaniola eastward to Puerto Rico. Up to 15 inches of rain is possible over portions of Hispaniola through Wednesday, which could produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
Though the rugged terrain of Hispaniola should eat away at Franklin’s circulation tomorrow, models show it regrouping on the other side over the southwestern Atlantic where it’s expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend.
By early next week, Franklin will pull more quickly to the north, where models show it splitting the uprights between the continental U.S. and Bermuda. Franklin is not a threat to Florida.
Otherwise across the Atlantic, Gert – now a Tropical Depression – is barely hanging on and no threat to land. NHC is tracking the remnants of once-Tropical Storm Emily, but it will remain out over the open ocean.
We’ll keep an eye on Invest 92L over the eastern Atlantic, but models are tepid on development for now.
As we mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter, we’ll want to monitor the area around the Yucatán Peninsula and Central America by the weekend. Our reliable global models show general low pressure festering in the area, and this time of year it’s worth a little extra babysitting.
For now, we’ll watch to see if the models trend toward a more coherent concern for next week.
