It’s nearing the time of year tropical activity starts quickly heating up, and right on cue we’re following several systems this week in the Atlantic for possible development. For now, neither system poses any immediate threat to land, but we’ll keep an eye to the westernmost disturbance for the Caribbean islands this weekend.
The most likely candidate for our next named system is the easternmost disturbance – a tropical wave forecast to move off Africa in the next day or two. As we discussed in Monday’s newsletter, there are several factors which should pump the brakes on quick formation, including entanglements with the monsoon trough off Africa and a lingering plume of dry, Saharan air.
As the system pulls northwestward this weekend and out of the monsoon trough, however, the dust will also thin out, opening the door to a riper environment for development.
Our forecast models are in good agreement with development by the weekend as the system moves northwestward toward the central Atlantic. The system should stay over open waters into next week.
Meanwhile, another tropical wave already over the eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands off Africa may try to slowly organize by later this week and into the weekend. Forecast models aren’t quite as bullish on development with this one – and the NHC is keeping developing odds low for now – but it’s worth following, as it’ll be tracking toward the eastern Caribbean islands for the weekend.
Forecast models into early next week do indicate a break in the high-pressure steering which could help to bend the disturbance northward before it gets too deep into the Caribbean. Much depends on where, when, and if a system takes shape, so we’ll keep a close eye on development trends.
We may also need to watch the central and western Gulf of Mexico as a combination of factors could produce a low-pressure system by late weekend. The system would be moving westward and away from South Florida, but with Gulf temperatures running at all-time highs, it’ll be worth monitoring for coastal areas west of us early next week.
