August in the Atlantic can be a dangerous place for deadly and destructive hurricanes. Names like Andrew (1992), Katrina (2005), Camille (1969), Allen (1980), Charley (2004), Harvey (2017), Ida (2021), Laura (2020), Alicia (1983), and David (1979) all have their origins in August.
The strongest of the strongest in August was Hurricane Allen in 1980, which peaked as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of an astounding 190 mph and a minimum pressure of 899 mb (as measured by NOAA Hurricane Hunters) as it neared the tip of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. Though Allen is now the fifth strongest Atlantic hurricane by pressure, it remains the strongest Atlantic hurricane by maximum winds.
Overall, August has recorded seven Category 5 hurricanes, with two Category 5 U.S. landfalls – Camille in 1969 and Andrew in 1992. The two costliest hurricanes in U.S. history – Katrina in 2005 and Harvey in 2017 – also struck in August. Some of the deadliest hurricanes known of have occurred in August – from Katrina most recently to the 1893 Sea Islands hurricane that killed upwards of 2,000 people along coastal Georgia and South Carolina.
August hurricanes tend to peak in the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, where the waters are warmest this time of year.
Some 75% of historical Category 3 or stronger August hurricanes formed after August 15th, tilting the threat to the latter part of the month. Most Augusts see at least one hurricane and the most hurricanes recorded in a single August is five, which happened both in 2004 and 1893.
Thankfully, for now, August is starting out with a whisper. As we’ve discussed in recent newsletters, several healthy tropical waves are tracking westward through the deep Atlantic, including a robust wave bringing squally weather from Grenada to Martinique across the Windward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. Our forecast models remain cold to development for each of these disturbances into next week, largely due to a dry and stable airmass stifling organized storminess.
We’ll keep our eyes peeled to the eastern Atlantic again for next week as another potent tropical wave rolls off Africa this weekend. Some of our longer-range guidance show slow development potential by later next week, but we’ll have plenty of time to monitor.
For the time being, no tropical threats are expected at least into early next week.
