The disturbance, designated Invest 95L, had odds as high as 70% on Friday from the NHC to form into Tropical Depression 6, or possibly Tropical Storm Emily. Those odds have now been dropped to just 20%.
If the storms near the center can’t be maintained, then the tropical development cycle cannot take place. The cycle goes; storms near the center release heat into the air that was gathered from the sea. This warm air rises, which lowers the pressure, which then draws in more moisture and heat, and the process continues until a closed low forms with continual and cohesive storms.
It seems a thick Saharan dust plume to the north of the system is bringing disruption. As the dry air gets into the disturbance, the storms collapse and the cycle pauses.
Aside from the dust, however, the atmosphere around the system is generally favorable. Development chances for 95L are on life support, but not gone altogether, so the eastern Caribbean islands should monitor it closely.
Current timing brings the disturbance to the easternmost island by roughly late today or Tuesday. Gusty squalls should be expected as it passes through, especially north of the center, regardless if it gets tagged as a developed tropical system or not.
Once in the Caribbean, the upper level winds look to become increasingly hostile, making a favorable pocket harder to find. Many computer forecasts keep the disturbance disorganized and unthreatening, but we always keep a close watch on any disturbance in late July.
At this point, it is not a threat for South Florida.
Elsewhere, we had a flash-in-the-pan hurricane in Don in the North Atlantic over the weekend. It has been a named storm for 10 days, but has since wandered over the much cooler waters and is in the process of quickly unravelling as it continues harmlessly out over the open ocean.
The longer-range outlook does have the typical disturbances that roll off Africa like clockwork every few days over the next week.
Activity in the tropics usually picks up quite a bit in August, and the extra warm waters this year are a potential octane-booster to storm activity. It is a good time to review your hurricane plan. For now, enjoy the break.