The disturbance we’ve been tracking this week in the eastern Atlantic has fused into a coherent area of low pressure that the National Hurricane Center late yesterday designated Invest 95L.
For now, the scrambled-egg appearance of 95L’s storminess leaves much to be desired, but as it detaches itself from the monsoon trough – an umbilical cord of juicy air and background spin – it should slowly begin to organize by this weekend.
As we discussed in Monday’s newsletter, the waters across the Atlantic’s main development region are as warm today as they are typically when water temperatures peak in late September.
With light upper-level winds ahead, it’s no surprise forecast models have warmed up to the idea of gradual development as the system moves westward toward the eastern Caribbean. While initial intensity guidance should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism during these early development stages, they have taken a more aggressive stance, indicating the possibility for strengthening in the short term if a system forms.
The biggest obstacle to development in the coming days will be dry air lurking to the north. That said, forecast models keep the dryness far enough removed from the more humid conditions surrounding it that the arid influence may not be enough to stave off development.
Those living in or traveling to the Lesser Antilles should prepare for a tropical depression or tropical storm (Emily would be the next name) approaching the area next Monday into Tuesday.
Staunch high pressure to the north should continue to direct Invest 95L or the system that comes from it westward into the central Caribbean by middle to late next week.
While it’s too early to offer much speculation for survival odds beyond a week, a pronounced subtropical jet stream dip over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida, undulating into the Caribbean, does suggest a less conducive environment down the road. Something we’ll certainly keep an eye to next week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Don is on day seven as a named storm, churning over the open waters of the North Atlantic. The storm will be moving northward toward cooler waters, which will turn off its tropical engine by early next week.
Extended range guidance is picking up some in the eastern Atlantic as we close out July. We’re closing in on the time of year we’d naturally expect an uptick in activity, and given the unprecedented warmth across the deep Atlantic, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that come a little early.
During this final stretch of July, double check your hurricane supply kits and shore up your family preparedness plans before we enter the busiest three-month period of the hurricane season.