The Atlantic is turning a little more lively headed into November, but the two systems we’re following will keep a healthy distance from Florida and the mainland U.S. in the week ahead.
An area of storminess in the Caribbean poses the greatest risk into next week, primarily for parts of Central America. The pieces that will come together over the weekend are a strip of low pressure festering over the eastern Caribbean and a tropical disturbance moving into the Caribbean from the Atlantic.
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Our forecast models indicate that by late weekend a more coherent area of low pressure will take shape south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. High pressure steering to the north will guide the system on a westward trajectory into the western Caribbean next week.
The good news for us in Florida is this blocking high pressure will persist through next week, keeping the developing system to our south.
Environmental conditions in the western Caribbean will be largely conducive to storm organization, which means we’ll likely see the formation of a tropical depression or named storm by next week.
It’s too soon to know the details of land impacts, but interests in Jamaica and Central America will want to keep an eye on the forecasts, as waters are still quite warm enough to support a strengthening storm.
To the north of the Caribbean islands, we’re following a jet-stream-driven mess of showers which are producing a broad area of low pressure in the western Atlantic.
The tail of this weather system is wringing out copious rainfall over Puerto Rico, prompting flood advisories throughout the island, including flash flood warnings across most southern municipalities.
While the low-pressure area north of Puerto Rico may organize into a subtropical system as it meanders west of Bermuda this weekend, it will be whisked out to sea next week by an advancing front.
