During the shoulders of the hurricane season, when activity is ratcheting up or ramping down, it’s helpful to know what areas of the Atlantic to look to for possible development.
Examining formation points tells us a lot not only about where to keep watch but also what to watch for potential formation.
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The biggest source of formation from late October through November comes from the western Caribbean. It’s here that tropical waves moving westward through the Caribbean often interact with a natural area of background spin known as the Central American Gyre.
This big, broad circulation is particularly active early and late in the season and tropical systems commonly form within the gyre. About half of CAG events spawn a tropical cyclone.
Another area we look to are old cold fronts that stall out over still-warm waters. We watch the leading and trailing ends of fronts over the Gulf of Mexico or off the U.S. eastern seaboard for late season mischief.
Lastly, we look into the central Atlantic where tropical disturbances often find their footing or systems from outside the tropics dive down and take on tropical characteristics. Tropical cyclones that form out here add to our seasonal counts, but often stay harmlessly out to sea.
Looking out across the tropics this morning, we see mostly tame skies in the preferred development areas of the Atlantic. While we do find a cold front stretching from the Yucatan Peninsula of southern Mexico to well off the U.S. east coast, we don’t see any trouble spots.
For now, the typical source areas of the Atlantic look like they’ll stay dormant into next week.
