This week we’re following two disturbances in the Atlantic, one which will stay over the open Atlantic and another heading toward Central America, but neither poses a threat to the United States.
The area we’re most focused on is a strong tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the eastern Caribbean islands, designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center.
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Storminess around the sharp wave axis has increased, but we’re not yet seeing any curvature or banding to the shower activity, indicating a lack of organization.
Nevertheless, conditions ahead should become gradually more conducive to further development, most notably as the system approaches the western Caribbean this weekend, where air is able to pile up above a well of deep warm water.
While the disturbance will bring squally weather through the Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, and the low-latitude ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao this week, strong high pressure will shunt it south of U.S. interests, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
We won’t need to worry about this one in Florida, but the possibility of organization closer to Central America is certainly a concern for our southern neighbors. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to investigate 91L later today if development trends warrant.
Meanwhile, the easternmost disturbance we’re tracking – designated Invest 92L by the NHC and located only a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands off Africa – is embedded in a broader region of background spin known as the monsoon trough.
With its preexisting spin and sporadic, albeit still disorganized, storminess, it has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression later today or tomorrow.
By Thursday, however, increasing wind shear will either significantly limit or snuff out its chances of lasting into the weekend as it stays over the open Atlantic.
