After nearly two months without a single tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic – the longest such gap this early in the season in 40 years – Mother Nature’s rattled off two hurricanes in less than a week, with Earl poised to become the first Category 3 or stronger hurricane of the season.
It’s an impressive turnaround for a basin scraping the bottom of least active seasons in the modern record.
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Danielle in the far north Atlantic and Earl, which continues to strengthen several hundred miles south of Bermuda, have brought tropical activity in line with more recent seasons to date like 2018, 2015, and 2014.
Although 2014 and 2015 ended with below average activity, 2018 was a late bloomer, producing some catastrophic hurricanes after the typical September 10th peak, including the likes of Florence and Category 5 Michael, together causing over $50 billion in damage and dozens of deaths.
Although the core of Earl isn’t expected to have a direct hit on Bermuda, the large and strengthening hurricane will come close enough to bring squally weather and gusty winds above tropical storm strength (39 mph or higher) in outer bands to the British Overseas Territory starting today.
Rainbands are already rotating into Bermuda where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are currently in place.
Both Danielle and Earl have tapped into plentiful warmth in the waters of the high-latitude Atlantic.
Danielle has wound up its journey as a hurricane in the far northeastern Atlantic, where it was a hurricane longer than any other system this far north in the recordbooks.
Meanwhile, Earl is forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane in a part of the far north Atlantic unaccustomed to seeing such strong hurricanes.
It’s been a year so far where the tropics have ceded their time to the subtropics and parts of the world more familiar with big winter storms.
Back in the traditional hurricane zone of the deep tropics, we’re following Invest 95L well west of the Cabo Verde Islands and a new disturbance exiting the coast of Africa to the southeast.
If 95L forms, it will likely be short-lived before it recurves into the open Atlantic. The system near Africa will need some time to cook but since it’s riding so far south, we’ll continue to monitor its progress into next week.
For now, South Florida is in the clear for another week.
