After a historically quiet start to the hurricane season – the least active in over 80 years – the Atlantic is making up for lost time with its second hurricane in less than a week and two areas we’re watching for development in the week ahead.
Remarkably, despite being sandblasted by a firehose of strong wind shear, Earl managed to strengthen last night into a hurricane over the open Atlantic between Puerto Rico and Bermuda.
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While strengthening storms under moderate shear (generally shear between 10 and 25 knots in the Atlantic) isn’t uncommon, intensification under strong shear (in the case of Earl exceeding 30 knots), is far less common.
One factor that may be aiding Earl’s resilience to persistently strong wind shear is its large size. Hurricane Hunters flying in Earl Wednesday morning are reporting an eye 50 miles across, with maximum winds about 25 miles away from its circulation center.
After slow but steady pressure falls since Tuesday night, Earl appears to be leveling off Wednesday morning. The latest dropsonde instrument package released into the center of the hurricane shortly after 8 AM ET found its central pressure mostly unchanged from several hours earlier.
Nevertheless, the environment ahead of Earl is only expected to become more hospitable over the next few days, with a marked drop in wind shear and a warm and juicy setup ahead. As a result, NHC forecasts Earl to strengthen into a top-end Category 3 hurricane by Friday as it passes east and north of Bermuda.
Because it’s already a large storm and its wind field is expected to only grow due to its interaction with the nearby jet stream, tropical storm conditions (sustained winds above 38 mph) are likely in Bermuda beginning as early as Thursday evening. The entire archipelago is under a tropical storm warning, as tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Danielle is hanging on as a hurricane about as far north in the Atlantic as you’ll find hurricanes. It’s expected to weaken and merge with a non-tropical weather system in the coming days.
In the far eastern Atlantic, we’re following the progress of two disturbances, one about 1,100 miles west of Africa – designated Invest 95L – and another about the roll off the African coast.
While Invest 95L may have a brief development window this week, it’s expected to turn northward into the north-central Atlantic. We’ll continue to follow the progress of the disturbance set to emerge off Africa, but it poses no threat or concern for the foreseeable future.
