We continue to follow a series of disturbances rolling through the Atlantic. These tropical waves – ripples in the east-to-west flowing winds at about 5,000 to 10,000 feet up resembling ocean waves – leave the coast of Africa every three to five days and, deeper into the summer, can be the fuse for future hurricanes.
So far this hurricane season, however, the tropical waves have struggled to organize into much more than periodic, blustery rainmakers.
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The two latest waves we’re tracking in the eastern Atlantic – one that rolled off Africa late last week and another expected to embark in the next few days – both have some hurdles to overcome before matriculating into full-fledged tropical cyclones.
The biggest impediment continues to be mid-level dry air from the north that isn’t allowing thunderstorm activity to persist and coalesce for any extended period of time, a prerequisite for tropical development.
With the environment discouraging showers and thunderstorms and hostile upper-level winds ahead, development odds will stay low this week.
The leading system will continue to travel westward, near or to the north of the northernmost islands of the Caribbean by early next week. As we’ve mentioned in previous newsletters, this time of year we watch these long cruisers a little more carefully as they only need a pocket of less hostile conditions to flourish.
For now, our forecast models aren’t showing any need for concern in the days ahead, but the wave train reminds us we’ve entered the six-week stretch when we traditionally see about three-quarters of all tropical season activity.
We know we’ve started the busy part of the season right about when the first college football game is played. Nebraska and Northwestern kick off the season in Dublin, Ireland, this Saturday at 12:30 ET.
