An area of low pressure along a stalled cold front that’s washed out over the northern Gulf is being monitored for possible development this week.
The disturbance is producing only disorganized storminess now, but as it lingers along the north-central Gulf coast in the coming days, it will be a focus for several rounds of heavy rain.
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The system’s proximity to land as well as only marginally conducive upper-level winds should limit significant organization.
Regardless of development, the very juicy air – forecast to be in the 90th percentile of atmospheric moisture for this time of year – will be a catalyst for a wet week across parts of south Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
Up to 15 inches of rain is being forecast by the National Weather Service through the weekend, with the greatest threat along and south of Interstates 10 and 12.
Otherwise, we’re expecting another quiet week through the tropical Atlantic thanks in part to a large outbreak of Saharan dust that stretches from Africa into the Caribbean.
The eastern Pacific continues its impressive run of storms, with Hurricane Darby blowing away forecasts and rapidly strengthening from a 65 mph tropical storm on Sunday to a powerful Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds by Monday morning, becoming the strongest storm on the planet so far in 2022.
These difficult-to-forecast rapid intensification episodes are more common earlier in the season across the eastern Pacific than in the Atlantic, where they become more frequent by September.
Darby remains a strong Category 4 hurricane Tuesday, but a gradual weakening is expected this week as it stays over the open waters of the central Pacific.