MIAMI – There continues to be no organized tropical systems across the Atlantic Ocean, but we are tracking a few areas of interest.
One tropical wave is producing clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of Saharan dust and moderate to strong vertical wind shear are expected to prevent development. Another tropical wave has very little in the way of precipitation. This wave is also embedded within strong vertical wind shear which will inhibit development despite lower levels of dust.
We are also watching an area of interest along the east cost of the Yucatan Peninsula that can become an organized tropical storm during the first days of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The area of thunderstorms is beginning to slowly organize and is likely to become the first tropical feature of the Atlantic Hurricane season. It appears that any system that does develop in the area will remain poorly organized as it potentially crosses parts of Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas as a tropical rainstorm or tropical depression from late Thursday or Thursday night through Saturday.
While there will be strong vertical wind shear limiting rapid development, other factors will help to aid in this area of low pressure strengthening.
It appears that this will at least bring areas of heavy rain and possible flooding along its track, along with the low risk for gusty winds. The highest chance for this to form into a tropical storm will be as the low tracks into the southwestern Atlantic later this weekend or early next week.
If it does become a tropical storm, it will be given the name Alex.