Wednesday, June 1st, marks day one of the 183-day Atlantic hurricane season.
While Atlantic hurricanes can occur during any month of the year (tropical trivia: hurricanes have been recorded in each month of the year except for February and April), the bookends of the hurricane season – June through November – capture the bulk of tropical activity; since records began in 1851, a full 99 percent of hurricanes have formed during this six-month window.
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Hurricane season typically peaks in early-to mid-September, with historically most activity focused around September 10th. Late August to mid-October is considered the prime part of hurricane season, during which 75 percent of all Category 3 or stronger hurricanes have been observed.
June hurricanes occur less frequently than during any other month. On average, a June hurricane is recorded about once every five years in the Atlantic.
The big story this week is what comes of the remnants of the eastern Pacific’s Hurricane Agatha, whose leftover spin over southeastern Mexico will contribute to a general area of storminess over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.
As of 8 AM ET Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting 80 percent odds that this area organizes into our first tropical depression or storm by the end of the work week. Hurricane Hunters are set to investigate this system Thursday afternoon if development trends warrant.
The presence of a jet stream dip over the west-central Gulf this week should prohibit any significant development with this system. However, the deep surge of tropical moisture ahead of and in association with this low pressure system will create a ripe environment for potentially heavy rainfall across South Florida as it moves toward the Florida peninsula Friday into Saturday.
Model forecasts of precipitable water – a measure of moisture overhead – are noteworthy for South Florida, exceeding 2.5 inches by Saturday morning, near the top-end of historical upper air readings for the date. You can liken this soupy regime to a fully soaked sponge sitting overhead. It wouldn’t take much to wring out a lot of rainfall in short order in some spots.
While computer models differ on where exactly the “center” of this low pressure area heads once it comes together, because it should remain broad, strung out, and lopsided, these exact details are less important. Regardless, the deep tropical moisture from the I-4 Florida corridor southward means the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding beginning Friday through early Sunday, especially in urban areas and those locations already saturated from recent heavy rains.
Depending on the structure and strength of the system, some minor to moderate coastal flooding could be a concern for areas along the western Florida peninsula. Dangerous rip currents will also pose a concern through the weekend along area beaches.
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