The tropical Atlantic is in the midst of its most significant outbreak of Saharan dust in over two years.
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The ongoing outbreak has at least temporarily turned off the tropics and has likely contributed to some cooling of Atlantic waters – especially closer to Africa – that we’ve discussed in earlier newsletters.
The dry, dust-laden air from the deserts of North Africa usually peaks in late June and July and is an anticipated part of the seasonal cycle.
In 2023 Saharan dust was largely a no-show, with the lowest coverage of dust over the tropical Atlantic in at least 20 years (since satellites began measuring dust).
Will more dust mean fewer hurricanes?
Although well-timed dust outbreaks can stifle hurricane development – both by sprinkling dry air into the tropics and increasing wind shear on the edges of the dust plume – there’s little relationship between dust and overall hurricane activity, largely because the Saharan dust quickly fades as hurricane activity picks up in late August.
While we may not be able to take solace in the dust spike for what remains this hurricane season, it is certainly some welcome news for the near term after the most active start to a hurricane season on record.
The deep tropical Atlantic will stay shut down into next week, thanks in part to the dust that’s been largely absent since 2022.
Take the opportunity to shore up your hurricane plans and supply kits while it’s quiet.
The hurricane season will recommence soon enough, and August – the first big month of the season – is less than three weeks away.
