MIAMI – The busy September in the Tropics continues. Hurricane Florence – in the middle of the Atlantic – is of most concern since some long-range computer model forecasts bring it close or over the East Coast of the U.S. next week.
There appears to be little threat to South Florida from Florence.
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Behind it are two systems close to Africa, which are not well enough organized to be named… yet. They will be named Helene and Isaac, when they achieve sufficient organization, which is expected.
Florence found a bubble of very favorable upper winds and exploded into a Category 4 hurricane yesterday. But that spurt is over, and the system has now weakened. The weakening trend is expected to continue for a few days, and then the storm will enter an atmospheric pattern more favorable for restrengthening. The ocean temperature will increase as well as Florence gets closer to Bermuda.
The exact future track appears to be related to how strong Florence is over the weekend. In general, strong tropical systems are more likely to turn north, while weaker ones are more likely to turn more toward the west. Since the rapid strengthening yesterday was unexpected, and the degree of weakening that is now underway is uncertain, there are big question marks on the future track.
In general, a blocking high pressure system is forecast to build north of Florence. If Florence gets trapped under that high, it will be deflected toward the East Coast. If that happens, the question will become, will the blocking high be strong enough and wide enough to push the hurricane all the way to the coast, or will it move aside to allow Florence to turn north just before it impacts the eastern seaboard?
There are too many variables and forks in the road to pin this down, even within 1,000 miles at this point. But late this weekend, it appears Florence will pass the first fork, and we will see if it gets captured by the blocking high. Impact on the East Coast would be mid to late next week.
The impact, if it happens, would most likely be north of Florida, unless Florence weakens dramatically and comes, essentially, due west, which is not impossible, but is not expected at this time.