MIAMI-DADE, Fla. – The disturbance in the northwest Caribbean- called Invest 90L - is becoming better organized, and the afternoon models are now indicating that there is a good chance of it strengthening into a named storm. The name would Alberto.
The center of the system is still expected to track toward the northern Gulf coast, but the wet side - the east side - of the system will affect Florida.
As the center of the disturbance moves north, the moisture from the Caribbean will be pulled north with it. The moisture map for Saturday night attached shows the green plume from the south covering Florida and then wrapping into the system's center. This enhanced moisture gives us to possibility of heavy rain through the entire Memorial Day weekend.
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The wind will also pick up from the south, which will make boating dangerous at times. Especially combined with periods of heavy rain.
The satellite picture shows the current location of the rough center of the disturbance's circulation, and the general direction of expected movement. Note the large area of tropical rain to the east, which will also move north.
The NHC map shows the area in which the system is expected to organize over the next couple days - west of Florida in the Gulf.
The rainfall forecast is for the next five days - through Tuesday. You see that significant rain is forecast for all of Florida and the eastern Gulf coast. In South Florida, from 3 to 7 inches is the current forecast, with flooding possible.
The naming of this system is going to get convoluted. It is likely to start as a "subtropical" depression, and may become Subtropical Storm Alberto, before possibly transitioning to Tropical Storm Alberto near the northern Gulf coast.
At the subtropical stage, the winds are often more spread out, while purely tropical systems can concentrate their winds closer to the center. None of this is relevant for peninsula Florida, since the disturbance is large enough to pull moisture over the entire state.
It is not going to rain everywhere all the time, but driving could be hazardous over the holiday weekend. If you come to a flooded street, turn around, don't drowned.
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