A sloppy, broad area of low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center has given this stretched out low a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm next week.
Our computer models agree on a general track toward Florida. They also agree if this develops into an organized storm, odds favor a weaker storm with a very different setup from the prime conditions that strengthened Helene.
The main impact to Florida will be a multi-day flooding threat with rounds of heavy rain.
The heaviest will arrive Sunday through the middle of the week. Up to 6 inches or more of rain will be possible in this stormy stretch.
South Florida should monitor the progress of this storm as we narrow down the forecast in the coming days. There’s still uncertainty in exact rainfall totals and impacts this far out.
If there’s any benefit to the wet pattern, it’s the lower temperatures that will come with the extra cloud cover. After 117 days of 90°+ heat so far this year in Miami, we will finally see highs closer to average in the 80s next week.
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