After being held in limbo – meandering for days in the northwestern Caribbean – Idalia, now a strengthening hurricane, is making a beeline for Florida’s Big Bend, with devastating impacts forecast as it comes ashore as a major hurricane tomorrow.
While forecast guidance has settled on Idalia’s primary impact area in the Big Bend – from Crystal River to the south and east to Apalachicola in the west – the hurricane will have a long arm, especially to its south and east, where life-threatening storm surge is forecast hundreds of miles east of where Idalia washes ashore.
The National Hurricane Center now forecasts up to 15 feet of catastrophic storm surge focused on the sleepy coastal towns of Cedar Key, Suwannee, and Steinhatchee. Up to 7 feet of storm surge flooding could be experienced as far south as Tampa Bay from Gulf water push ashore ahead of the storm.
Overnight runs of our forecast models trended west, with a sharp jet stream dip now beginning to pull Idalia quickly north.
Though the worst weather from Idalia will be near and well east of the center, those to the west – including inland cities like Perry, Crawfordville, and Tallahassee – shouldn’t sleep on this one. Coastal hurricane warnings extend westward to near Cape San Blas west of Apalachicola, with inland hurricane warnings now in place as far west as Leon and Wakulla Counties. High winds could cause widespread power outages well inland. Subtle shifts in the track near landfall could bring the core of Idalia close to some of these more populated areas.
Idalia should come ashore tomorrow morning then head up the I-95 corridor, affecting areas from Lake City and Jacksonville in Florida to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Thursday into Friday, where storm surge flooding is likely on the back side of Idalia into the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.
The primary threat besides strong winds and power outages in the southeast will be heavy rainfall – up to a foot in some places – and the threat for urban and flash flooding.
The areas at greatest risk extend from north-central Florida and southeast Georgia to the Carolinas from tomorrow through Thursday.
Idalia is forecast to reemerge over Atlantic waters east of the Carolinas on Friday where it may fester into next week, as it gets trapped between competing steering currents. While it’s worth mentioning that the American GFS model hooks Idalia back to Florida’s east coast as a much weaker redux early next week, the majority of models for now show a more subtle turn south. We’ll of course continue to monitor the trends for any shenanigans next week.
Formidable Franklin battering the U.S. east coast with high surf, life-threatening rip currents
Franklin topped out at nearly Category 5 hurricane strength, with winds reaching 150 mph yesterday evening as it churned over the southwestern Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Franklin was the strongest August hurricane outside the Gulf of Mexico since Hurricane Dorian in 2019.
Today the storm begins a slow weakening, but not before delivering some impressive surf up the east coast from the mid-Atlantic to south-facing shorelines in the northeast and New England. Some minor coastal flooding will be possible in spots, but the biggest threat to will be extremely dangerous and life-threatening rip currents for those risking a swim in the very rough waters. Always swim at lifeguard-protected beaches when possible and when red flags are flying, stay out of the water.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two areas in the eastern and central Atlantic have a medium chance for development but both should stay safely over the ocean into next week.
