The tropical Atlantic has settled back into a characteristically quiet state for late June after an unprecedented start – including two named storms in the main development region in June, the first occurrence in the modern record – to the hurricane season.
Late Friday into Saturday, Tropical Storm Bret quickly folded to increasing wind shear in the eastern Caribbean while by late Sunday, Cindy, over the open Atlantic northeast of the Caribbean islands, also fell to seasonally hostile wind shear and dry air. Unlike Bret, however, the low pressure left behind from the remnants of Cindy could try to reform by late week as wind shear begins to relax.
As of Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center predicts a low chance of redevelopment south of Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritimes. Though the outskirts of the system could help to enhance rainfall over the far northeastern U.S. into the weekend, what remains of Cindy is no direct threat to the U.S.
Meanwhile back across the deep tropical Atlantic, we’re witnessing our first noticeable Saharan dust outbreak of the hurricane season.
While the current dust plume should bring seasonal concentrations of dust to the tropical Atlantic, it’s largely underwhelming for this time of year.
So far in May and June, outbreaks of Saharan dust have been at record lows throughout the tropical Atlantic going back at least 20 years (length of the satellite-sensor record), which has contributed to the exceptional ocean heat wave across the north Atlantic this summer. Saharan air in the tropics typically peaks around this time of year and quickly drops off into August and September by the peak of the hurricane season.
Elsewhere, the remainder of the Atlantic, especially in the waters closer to Florida, will stay quiet this week.
Across in the eastern Pacific, models suggest we may finally see our first system of the year this week. If a tropical depression forms this week in the eastern Pacific, it would be the latest first tropical cyclone to form out here in the reliable records (back to the early 1970s), another surprising twist despite the building Pacific El Niño.
