Just before the start of the 2023 hurricane season, forecasters stated that this season would be a “tricky” one to figure out.
This is because there are two main contradictory factors battling it out and the Tropical Atlantic basin is the staging ground.
These two factors are the onset of an El Niño pattern and the boiling hot tropical Atlantic waters. NOAA officially declared the onset of El Niño about a month ago, the first El Niño pattern since 2019.
El Niño is characterized as abnormally warm waters in the equatorial Pacific, which is usually a good thing for us on the Atlantic side. El Niño helps to supercharge the upper-level westerlies that flow from the Pacific and over to the Caribbean and western Atlantic.
These stronger westerly winds aloft translate to hostile, storm-tearing, wind shear to help hinder tropical cyclone formation.
On top of that, El Niño alters global circulation patterns in the atmosphere, strengthening the subtropical high in the Atlantic and increasing the strong east-to-west flowing surface trade winds from Africa to the Caribbean.
Stronger surface winds mix up the ocean and help to cool the sea surface, thus lowering the amount of “fuel” systems can use.
However, another contender has entered the ring that is the 2023 hurricane season and its name is record warm Atlantic waters!
Sea surface temperatures for the tropical Atlantic are the warmest on record for this time of year, acting as an all-you-can-eat buffet for tropical systems.
We are already well ahead of schedule with the naming of Tropical Storms Bret and Cindy! We typically don’t see our third named storm until early August.
On top of that, we have never seen two named storms form east of the Lesser Antilles during the month of June in the same season. Usually the waters are not warm enough in this region until later in the season to support this kind of activity.
The naming of Bret and Cindy is history for the Atlantic basin. The rest of the 2023 season will undoubtedly be a roller coaster as these two forces continue to battle it out.
Tropical Storm Bret moved through the Windward Islands along the eastern edge of the Caribbean Thursday night, bringing heavy tropical downpours and strong winds gusting to nearly 70 mph.
Three to six inches of rain with isolated areas up to 10″ are expected to fall from Bret’s thunderstorm activity before losing its influence on the islands.
Bret will continue its westward track into the Caribbean Sea where dry air and harsh upper-level winds will quickly dissipate the storm over the weekend.
Just behind Bret, newly named Tropical storm Cindy is carving its own path.
A weakness in high pressure over the Atlantic will help Cindy curve out into the open waters of the Atlantic and away from any landmasses.