Tropical Storm Bret continued its westward plod overnight toward the eastern Caribbean and is expected to move near or over the east-central Caribbean islands – including Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique and Dominica – starting later today.
Bret’s maximum winds are steady at 70 mph and little change in strength is forecast today.
The storm has a wide reach of gusty winds exceeding 38 mph over 100 miles north of its center.
Because of the fast east-to-west trade winds Bret’s embedded within, most of the storm’s worst weather will affect areas to the north of where its center tracks. Conditions should begin to improve across the islands by later in the day Friday.
Once Bret enters the Caribbean, it will endure a one-two punch of heavy wind shear and an increasingly dry environment. The hostile combination should put a swift end to Bret’s journey by Saturday into Sunday as it tracks well south of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.
Virtually, all major models show Bret collapsing over the weekend and the system poses no threat to South Florida or the broader U.S.
Behind Bret in the central Atlantic, Invest 93L was upgraded to Tropical Depression Four on Thursday morning.
The system is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Cindy as early as this afternoon, but unlike Bret, it is expected to head north of the Caribbean islands and toward the open Atlantic.
The occurrence of two named storms in the deep tropical Atlantic in June is unprecedented in the record books and likely driven by the historic, ongoing North Atlantic ocean heatwave.
While another unseasonably robust tropical disturbance is rolling off the western coast of Africa today, development in the short term appears unlikely. At least for now, the tizzy of tropical activity remains far from our shores during a month replete with rare and record-breaking systems.